A lot has been said by Indian media as well as Pakistan’s media about India poaching Pakistan’s share in Afghanistan’s market. And though this may be true to an extent for certain goods such as wheat flour, overall India has a long way to go before it can make inroads in Pakistan’s market share.

In terms of percentages, India’s exports have grown by 45 percent since FY09 whereas Pakistan’s exports have grown by 16 percent. In terms of value however, India’s increase of exports over nearly a decade is less than $50 million. While Pakistan averaged over a $1 billion of exports to Afghanistan over the last decade, India’s average was less $150 million.

Nor has India’s make up of exports to Afghanistan changed drastically; in FY09 polyester fabric, electronic items, medicines, sugar and yarn were among the top 10 products which was true for FY17 as well. Exports of car tyres and tube, black tea, and metal sheet have increased since FY09. Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan make up remains similar over the last decade, with the top 10 products containing a mix of wheat flour and other food items, and cement.

Pakistan remains among Afghanistan’s top trading partners, along with Iran and China. Together these countries comprise more than half of Afghanistan’s imports in FY17, whereas India accounted for about 2 percent. Therefore it is unlikely that India will be challenging Pakistan’s market share in Afghanistan any time soon.

However, though Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan may not be challenged by India in the near term, there are indications for otherwise for the longer term. Chabahar port, though not competing with Gwadar port, does provide a channel for India to increase exports to Afghanistan that does not include Pakistan as an intermediary. India’s $2 billion investment in increasing access to Afghanistan, as well as the Central Asian Republics, seems to imply that India certainly thinks so.