Politics aside, there is little doubt that those in Punjab’s government, academia and think tank circles are moving faster in many ways than their peers in other provinces. And it’s not just the controversial metro projects, or much respected spill over of its agricultural research in its fields, or the start-up culture, or the integration of IT and governance that is becoming increasingly visible and heard in the land of rivers.

Recall that Punjab had recently made progress towards the estimation of Lahore’s GDP by Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry; the survey of Punjab’s economy by Punjab Economic Research Institute; and Punjab’s plans to build new economic cities where Pindi Bhattian and Gujrat have been selected as the proposed sites. (See also Punjab’s economy published Jan 9, 2018)

In connection with that, two recent studies coming out of Lahore School of Economics (LSE) deserve attention. Presented at the 14th International Conference on Management of the Pakistan Economy, the first is by Maryiam Haroon. Her study recommends the development of new cities where the government could make industrial clusters or Special Economic Zones for specific sector in due consideration to distribution of sectors and firms in the province.

Using the data published in Directory of Industries 2014 Punjab, as well as three other indicators namely total factor productivity, localization and urbanization, Maryiam has classified a host of economic sectors in terms of whether they need an industry cluster or a special economic zone (See illustration).

For reference sake, localization is understood as total employment in any given sector and district as a ratio of total employment of that sector in Punjab; whereas urbanization is understood as total employment in a district as a ratio of total employment in Punjab (irrespective of a sector).

The second study is by Umair Ayaz whose research informs the industrial policy for Punjab by identifying different industries based on their growth and export potential and suggests suitable regions for locating these industries, particularly based on their proximity to the CPEC route.

His study is difficult to be summarised because it looks at location of businesses across a wide list of existing and future highways that can best be explained with visual support. For instance, his results indicate that Faisalabad district is expected to naturally attract processed food and beverages, plastic products, and to some extent industrial chemical manufacturing industries once NHA’s M-3 and M-4 highways become fully operational. Ayaz’s research also flags noticeable change in the concentration of firms within the province between 2002 and 2014. For instance, in the case of wearing apparel, firms have become more concentrated in Lahore and Faisalabad and less in Sheikhupura during this time period. Likewise, in the case of leather, concentration of firms in Rawalpindi and Sargodha districts has reduced significantly and increased in Lahore.

This kind of economic research raises two key points. First, that Islamabad should make similar efforts to feed the discourse on the CPEC and its route, and also assist weaker provinces – weaker in terms of fiscal resources and human capital – in conducting similar studies. Second, why is Sindh sleeping, or if she is conducting such research then why is it not being made publicly available.

Lastly, while LSE’s researchers have used various datasets such as Census of Manufacturing Industries, and Directory of Industries, the researchers should also unpack the data and accordingly conduct similar geo-spatial studies based on SECP registered firms and the Association of Persons that are registered at district level.