The European's Union's wheat crop is developing well and a larger harvest is expected this summer despite worry about Britain's crop, observers said on Thursday. "Weather has been crop-friendly for EU wheat in the past weeks and harvest estimates are being marked up," one German trader said. "Overall wheat is developing positively apart from Britain, which remains the main problem area."
Plentiful EU export supplies are expected, especially in the east EU. "Buyers could be facing abundant supplies and the east EU countries are likely to compete well in Middle Eastern export markets," another trader said. "People are getting more optimistic about the EU crop size." The EU soft wheat crop will reach 130.7 million tonnes this year, EU grain lobby Coceral said, up 3 million from its March estimate and up from 125.4 million in 2012.
In the EU's largest wheat producer France, expectations of a larger crop than last year continue, with the absence of intense heat a positive factor. But cool, wet weather this month has added to concern this year's wheat harvest will arrive late and may bring mixed results after a difficult growing season.
"The grains are filling slowly but surely," said Xavier Gautier of crop institute Arvalis. "This is the positive side of the below-average temperatures." Traders expect France to harvest 36 million to 37 million tonnes of wheat, up from 35.6 million last year. Analysts Strategie Grains last week raised their monthly forecast by 120,000 tonnes to 36.3 million tonnes while Agritel expects 35.4 million tonnes, above its initial 34.8 million March forecast.
French wheat harvesting should start in mid-July along the Atlantic coast in the most advanced growing belt, 15-20 days later than last year, Arvalis estimates. Weather in the month ahead will be critical for final yields and crop quality, with any extreme conditions potentially penalising the harvest, analysts said. "We continue to think that wheat suffered during what was a tough winter and during the wet and cold spring. There has been to some extent a catching up but scars remain," Agritel's Alexis Poullain said.