THE RUPEE: bears dominate

18 Nov, 2013

The rupee tended lower against the dollar and euro on the local currency market during the shortened week on account of Muharram holidays. In the interbank market, the local currency, dropped by 12 paisa in terms of the dollar for buying at Rs 107.54 and it also shed 13 paisa for selling at Rs 107.57. In the open market, the rupee also drifted lower against the dollar, losing 30 paisa for buying at Rs 108.50 and Rs 108.70, the rupee fell by Re.one in relation to the euro for buying and selling at 144.80 and Rs 145.05.
Persistent demand boosted the dollar versus the rupee, it is most likely that the rupee may cross the barrier of Rs 109 in the open market, money experts said.
One thing is interesting to note the how the rupee react after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) move, in which it announced to raise policy rate by 50 basis points to 10 percent to bring inflation rate down. It looks like a fun as onion and tomato prices crossed all-time high level at Rs 300-400 per Kg, more interesting thing is that despite shy-rocketing prices, export of onion and tomatoes continue.
OPEN MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee continued week-end slide, shedding more10 paisa against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 108.20 and Rs 108.40. The rupee also inched down marginally by five pasia versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 143.80 and Rs 144.05.
On Tuesday, the rupee continued weakness against the dollar, losing more 30 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 108.50 and Rs 108.70. The rupee, however, rose the same amount versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 143.50 and Rs 143.75.
On Wednesday, the rupee managed to gain 10 paisa against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 108.40 and Rs 108.60. The rupee, however, lost 50 paisa versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 144.00 and Rs 144.25.
On Thursday, the rupee gave up rising trend against the dollar, losing 10 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 108.50 and Rs 108.70. The rupee also lost 80 paisa versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 144.80 and Rs 145.05. On Thursday and Friday, markets were closed due to public holidays.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On November 11, the rupee depreciated by four paisa against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 107.42 and Rs 107.44. On November 12, the rupee shed 11 paisa against the dollar for buying at Rs 107.53 and it also depreciated by 10 paisa for selling at Rs 107.55. On November 13, the rupee inched down by one paisa in relation to the dollar for buying at Rs 107.54 and it also fell by two paisa for selling at Rs 107.57.
OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLARS: In the first Asian trade, the dollar held near a two-month high against a basket of major currencies on Monday, having staged a broad rally after upbeat US jobs data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus as early as next month.
The dollar index eased 0.1 percent to 81.262 but stayed within sight of a two-month high of 81.482 set on Friday after a closely watched report showed employers added 204,000 new jobs to their payrolls last month, soundly beating forecasts for 125,000 jobs.
Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Monday. 77.75-77.75 (77.75-77.75).
CALL MONEY RATES: 06.00-08.00 percent (previous 05.75-08.00 percent). The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 62.48, the greenback was at 3.1925 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.0914 versus the Chinese yuan.
In the second Asian trade, the euro clung onto modest gains early in Asia on Tuesday after a lacklustre overnight session that saw investors trim bearish positions in the common currency following a heavy sell-off last week.
Traders said an absence of fresh drivers had prompted the market to lock in profits, a move that helped the euro drift up to $1.3405 from Monday's low of $1.3345, pulling away from a two-month trough of $1.3295 plumbed Thursday.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at 63.24, the greenback was at 3.2010 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was at 6.091 against the Chinese yuan. Inter bank buy/sell rates for the taka against the dollar on Tuesday. 77.75-77.7525 (77.75-77.75). Call Money Rates: 06.00-08.00 percent (previous 05.75-08.00 percent).
In the third Asian trade, the dollar eased on Wednesday but still clung near a two-month high against the yen, supported by speculation that the US Federal Reserve is on course to start reducing its stimulus as early as December.
After surprisingly strong US October payroll data on Friday had many investors reassessing the timing of a Fed tapering, attention is now on the comments that nominee Fed President Janet Yellen will make at her Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday. The dollar was trading against the rupee at 63.66, the greenback was at 3.2085 in relation to the Malaysian ringgit and the greenback was at 6.0919 versus the Chinese yuan.
In the final Asian trade, the yen dropped to a two-month low against the dollar and a four-year trough versus sterling on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair nominee Janet Yellen's dovish remarks boosted risk appetite, undermining the low-yielding Japanese currency. Yellen defended the US central bank's stimulus to spur growth and called efforts to boost hiring an "imperative", reinforcing investors' expectations that US monetary stimulus may be in place for an extended period.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 63.11, the greenback was at 3.1965 in terms of the Malaysian ringgit and the US currency was 6.0918 at versus the Chinese yuan. At the week-end, the safe-haven dollar and yen fell on Friday after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen lifted investor appetite for riskier assets by defending the US central bank's current stimulus measures.

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