In a rather unusual development last Saturday, Egypt expelled Turkish ambassador, accusing Ankara of attempting to influence public opinion against Egyptian interests, and backing the supporters of the ousted Brotherhood president Mohammad Morsi, by supporting "meetings of organisations that seek to create instability in the country". Turkey retaliated by declaring Egyptian ambassador persona non grata, saying it was saddened by the situation but that responsibility for it belonged to "Egypt's temporary administration which came to power under the extraordinary circumstance of July 3 coup." Tension between the two countries has been mounting since Morsi's removal and the ensuing government crackdown on the former president's supporters. The two countries had recalled their ambassadors for consultation last August after Egyptian security forces attacked a pro-Morsi protest camp, killing hundreds of people.
One reason for Turkey taking sides with the ousted president is the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) own experience with an attempted military coup. It remains highly critical of the military-backed government, saying it has taken the position it has as a democratic country respecting the people's right of choice everywhere in the world, including in Turkey. Equally important is a relatively recent shift in the country's foreign policy. Notably, Turkey traditionally aligned itself with Europe. The Islamist AKP readjusted the country's foreign policy, orienting it more towards the Middle East as it looked to assume a leadership role in the region through political and economic cooperation. Soon after, a wave of revolutions swept through the Arab world, creating new opportunities for Ankara to take advantage of. It has been actively encouraging pro-democracy movements from Tunisia to Egypt, Yemen and Syria even hosting Syrian rebel forces. It would not be surprising if there is some truth to Egyptian allegation that Turkey is allowing the Brotherhood leaders to use its territory to meet and plan protests against the government at home.
For now, Turkey is trying to downplay the diplomatic row. President Abdullah Gul has expressed the hope that "our relations will again get back on track." The diplomatic relations are likely to be resumed anytime soon but tensions will remain because the political landscape of the region is undergoing change. Old alliances, such as the one between the US and Saudi Arabia, are under stress. Egypt, a trusted American ally for over three decades, once again, is warming up to Russia. The US and Iran are in the process of settling old disputes. A beginning in that direction has been made and it appears that the process of rapprochement will continue culminating eventually in the total roll-back of the Iranian nuclear armament ambitions and lifting of sanctions against it. It is also apprehended that the US with its huge finds of shale gas is not as interested in the Arab oil as it has been thus far. It is still reluctant to accept popular movements for change in the interest of its own strategic aims that include protecting Israel. But sooner or later it will have to take note of new realities and make policy amends. As uncertainty hangs over much of the region, tiffs such as the present one between Turkey and Egypt could become more common.