Pakistan's former High Commissioner to India Salman Bashir on Thursday seconded the government decision to delay the grant of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India and predicted an uncertain scenario in case Narendra Modi of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerges as the next Indian prime minister.
He was briefing parliamentarians on the "Prospects of Upcoming Indian Elections and Its Impact on Pak-India Relations" organised by the Pakistan-India Parliamentary Friendship Group here at Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services (PIPS). He described the delay on granting India the MFN status as good omen, adding that Pakistan also needs to resolve some core issues, including the water dispute with India besides, addressing concerns of the stakeholders. He said the Indian military establishment sill considered Pakistan as an enemy. However, he added that it was a positive sign that unlike the past there was least Pakistan bashing in the ongoing elections in India.
Bashir said that Pakistan wanted resumption of the composite dialogue with India to resolve the core issues; however, many in the Indian administration wanted engagement with Pakistan only on selective issue instead going for the composite dialogue. About the outcome of the Indian elections, he said that many people believe the BJP was going to win 220 out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats and Narendra Modi was widely believed to be the next Indian prime minister. He added that the BJP was enjoying support of the hardcore Hindu extremist party Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
He said many foreign diplomats, including the European Union ambassadors, have already held meeting with Modi but Pakistan so far did not make any contact with the BJP's would be premier. He said that it was a good decision not to make any contact with Modi at this stage because it can influence the elections results, as Muslim vote in the Indian elections play a pivotal role.
According to him, there was still a wide-ranging concern among the Indians especially in the Muslim community over the 2002 sectarian violence in UP, which has the largest 180 Lok Sabha seats and greatly impact the election results. Bashir, who was recently replaced by another career diplomat after expiry of his contract, however, presented a confused and uncertain scenario whether Narendra Modi emerges as the Indian Prime Minister or anyone else would occupy the slot.
He said that it was big question-mark whether Modi would emerge as national level leader like Atal Behari Vajpayee after becoming the next Indian prime minister. He said that a question also arise whether Modi will come out of his radical mindset and realise to be a pragmatic leader keeping in view the serious problems India was currently facing. However, he asserted that Modi has no foreign policy vision, adding that except for China and Japan he had no foreign exposure.
He pointed out that it should also be noted that currently there was a positive trajectory in China-India relations which is reflective of large Chinese investment in India. Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, Chairman of Senate Standing Committee on Defense, while speaking said that Pakistan could link the NDMA arrangement with resolution of the water issues and make such arrangements on reciprocal basis after the Indian elections.
He was of the view that Pakistan and India should resolve their issues bilaterally without involving any third country, adding that dialogue was the only choice as war between the two was not an option anymore. Renowned analyst Dr Rasul Bakhsh Raees, while speaking said that it was positive sign that the BJP was now transforming into a secular party. However, he pointed out India is currently hosting 200 million middle-class population, which unfortunately comes from the extremist radical segment.
He said that Modi was most likely to become the next Indian premier because of his economic agenda, adding that during his 10 years as chief minister he gave a good economic model to Gujarat. Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari, convenor of the group, who is also the chairman of Standing Committee of National Assembly on Foreign Affairs, hosted the briefing. During his welcome address, Leghari informed the participants regarding the activation of the Pakistan-India PFG in the 14th National Assembly. "In order to promote the vision of National Assembly Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, the group would be working on organising such activities frequently so as to promote the parliamentary role in friendship." he added.