Most emerging Asian currencies rose on Thursday, while the Indonesian rupiah held above a one-week low ahead of the release by next week of the official results of Indonesia's presidential election. The rupiah eased 0.1 percent on the day to 11,705, but remained above Wednesday's trough of 11,825, which was the rupiah's lowest level since July 7.
Investors are betting on a Joko "Jokowi" Widodo win based on unofficial tallies from quick polls, helping to support the Indonesian currency. A trader at a bank in Indonesia said a Jokowi win would probably lift the rupiah to 11,255 against the US dollar. He cautioned, however, against trading on euphoria after a Jokowi win. "It's a never ending story," he said. "I'm sure the result will be challenged."
Both Jokowi and his rival, former general Prabowo Subianto, have claimed victory in the election held on July 9, and the Elections Commission is to announce the official result by July 22. After the official result is declared, candidates can challenge the results in the Constitutional Court, the final arbiter over contested polls. Saktiandi Supaat, head of FX research at Maybank, said he remains cautious on Indonesia even as markets expect a Jokowi win as "the political scenario still has uncertainty as the parliament remains skewed towards the Prabowo coalition."
Elsewhere, the South Korean won rose 0.3 percent on foreign inflows to 1,029.1, but its gains were capped amid speculation there will be an interest rate cut. The Indian rupee held steady, underperforming on a day when most Asian currencies rose. The rupee was held back by dollar demand from banks for oil and defence-related payments.