As world markets declined or at best showed a mixed trend due to not only the Iraq Syria Islamic State (ISIS) advances towards Iraqi oilfields, the massacre in Gaza and the escalation in tensions between Russia and the West after the downing of the Malaysian aircraft over Eastern Ukraine Pakistani stock market boomed showing a confidence in the Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar's economic policies that the rest of the country is still grappling to understand. So what went so right with the market players?
One rating agency and two international entities gave a favourable rating to Pakistan though no market player obviously read the small print. Moody's upgrading of Pakistan's rating was based on "external liquidity position" which was primarily borrowing from abroad at higher than market rates (2 billion dollars from Eurobonds at 7.50 and 8.50 percent) but lower than borrowing domestically and not on an improvement in our trade balance. Remittances though have remained a major positive contributor to Pakistan's external liquidity position since 2008. What says it all is Moody's statement that Pakistan continues to suffer from "structurally large fiscal imbalances and weak debt metrics...very low institutional strength and high susceptibility to event risk."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) third staff review report noted that "program performance has been mostly positive, with all performance criteria for end-March met except on Net Domestic Assets of the State Bank of Pakistan which was missed by a small margin." But the list of issues highlighted in the report was just as exhaustive as subsequent to the fourth review of the November 2008 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the Fund, which led to eventual suspension in 2010. The third staff review urged the government to "do more" during their discussions which focused on fiscal consolidation with the (a) elimination of statutory regulatory orders on income tax, sales tax and customs. The yield of these measures was estimated at 0.34 percent of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or a little over 86 billion rupees; (b) higher income tax, increased sales and excise taxes and increased customs tariffs expected to generate 104 billion rupees (0.41 percent of the GDP); and (iii) generating an additional 0.52 percent of GDP through tax base broadening measures, which amount to 132 billion rupees. Thus the total committed to the IMF amounts to 322 billion rupees while the budget 2014-15 indicates a rise in FBR total collections of 535 billion rupees in comparison to the revised estimates of last year giving the FBR around 213 billion rupees leeway in terms of failing to meet the budgeted targets.
Would this leeway be enough to ensure that the IMF tax collection targets are met? In fiscal year 2013-14 the PML-N government fell short by 200 billion rupees - the difference between what was budgeted and the revised figures. Thus the 213 billion rupee leeway may have been sufficient to convince the IMF staff that the government means business. It is unfortunate that reliance was not placed on broadening the tax base and the Fund continues to urge the government to improve tax administration, which it states showed "meagre results" with respect to (i) expanding income tax compliance, (ii) compliance of other taxes, and (iii) strengthening the Federal Board of Revenue.
The second publication that highlighted a favourable economic outlook for Pakistan was the Asian Development Outlook, a publication of the Asian Development Bank. It stated that a 3.4 percent growth rate was forecast while surprisingly the government achieved a rate of 4.1 percent - a rate that was publicly challenged by the IMF mission leader in a joint press conference with the Finance Minister. It is unclear what methodology, if any, was used by the ADB and whether it simply picked up the rate from government data. Whatever the fact may be the ADB does need to explain the methodology it used to determine the growth rate for Pakistan as no credible think-tank or economist, excepting the Finance Ministry and divisions/departments operating under it including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, is lending any credibility to this figure.
So which sector above all others performed well during the year past and which led to an appreciation in the budget speech - an appreciation that accounts for grant of a major tax incentive? The stock market! The Finance Minister stated that "a star performer of Pakistani economy during the fiscal year 2013-14 has been the stock market. The rate of capital gains tax was to increase from 10 percent to 17.5 percent with effect from 1 July 2014 (an agreement painstakingly made between the then Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh and the 40 odd key market players - an agreement no doubt based on the revenue potential estimated at around 100 billion rupees if comparable rates in India and other countries are taken as a yardstick).....however to ensure continued stability in the stock market, it is proposed that with effect from 1 July 2014 Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates shall be 12.5 percent for securities held up to 12 months and 10 percent for securities held for a period which is between 12 to 24 months whereas securities held for more than 24 months shall be exempt from CGT," Dar said in his speech.
Critics maintain that the lower than agreed CGT on the major market players was to ensure that market sentiment can be manipulated to become bullish as and when it suited the Finance Minister to shut up his growing detractors. And the performance of the market was picked up by the IMF staff in the third review no doubt at Dar's insistence: "since June 2013 the Karachi Stock Exchange index KSE-100 has gained 13 percent and the sovereign spread tightened by 242 basis points. Nonetheless despite the commencement of trading of government securities in the KSE secondary market activities remain thin compared to over-the-counter market." And that explains Dar's largesse to the stock market players.
To conclude there is an emergent need to abandon politically-motivated tax policies but this is unlikely in the foreseeable future.