Russian wheat prices were flat last week in dollar terms, supported by a weakening of the rouble and record exports in the middle of the harvesting campaign, analysts said on Monday. Russia, one of the main wheat suppliers via the Black Sea, exported 2.8 million tonnes of grains in July, including 2.4 million tonnes of wheat, according to customs data. That was a record amount of wheat for that month.
"Rapid rouble weakening continued to support the competitiveness of Russian grain on the global market," analysts at SovEcon, a Russian agriculture consultancy, wrote. The Russian rouble has lost about 6 percent against the US dollar since the start of July. Global wheat prices rose last week, partially on concerns about possible disruptions of Russian exports after Moscow banned most food imports from countries that had imposed sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine.
Traders anticipated last week that export controls could be used to help control domestic food inflation from Russia's partial food import ban, Morgan Stanley said in a research note. "We maintain that, in the face of one of the best grain harvests in decades and already-falling grain prices, Russia is unlikely to risk harming its farm sector by limiting exports," it added.
On Monday, US wheat futures fell for a third straight session, extending losses over that period to nearly 4 percent as traders squared bullish positions. Moscow's bans on various food imports from the United States and the European Union will have no impact on Russia's grain exports, Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov said last week.
Russian prices for new-crop wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were flat at $246 per tonne at the end of last week, according to IKAR, another Russian agriculture consultancy. The quote was on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in the Black Sea compared with a week earlier. FOB prices for the same protein level in the Azov Sea were flat at $217 per tonne.
According to SovEcon, Russian FOB export prices for wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were up $1 at $248 per tonne in deepwater ports. FOB prices for 11 percent protein content at La Pallice, the west coast French port that is the key milling wheat terminal for the start of the season, were quoted at around $256 a tonne on Monday.