Importers in Kenya and Tanzania are expected to keep the local currencies under pressure next week, while low demand for the dollar in Uganda should support the country's shilling. By 1230 GMT market on Thursday, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 88.30 to the dollar, down from last Thursday's close of 88.05.
"It looks like the shilling is going to weaken with end-of-month payments of imports by the oil and manufacturing sectors," said Sheikh Mehran, head of trading for I&M bank. Kenya's currency has weakened for the past two weeks as banks started buying the dollar on signs that a domestic funding crunch was easing. However, some analysts say the problem has not gone away.
Mehran said inflows of dollars would be limited, with the tea and tourism sectors beset by dwindling earnings. Kenya's tea exports have fetched lower prices all year due to over-production, while its tourism business slid into crisis because of frequent deadly attacks blamed on Islamists from neighbouring Somalia. Worries over the industry's performance have grown due to the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, which has caused at least one airline, Korean Airlines, to suspend flights to Kenya, even though the east African hub itself has seen no cases.
"The shilling is under pressure because of the easing of the liquidity squeeze on the local currency, which has ushered in a rise of demand for dollars from oil and construction sectors." The Bank of Tanzania said on its website it traded $55.5 million on the interbank foreign exchange market over the past week.
"I suspect the shilling will be stuck in a 2,600-2,615 range since not much is happening on the demand side. But as we eye month-end inflows the bias will be on the appreciation side," said Benon Okwenje, a trader at Stanbic Bank. Month-end flows normally come in from charities converting dollars to pay salaries. The shilling has strengthened in recent days, underpinned by weak demand from private firms and attractive government bond yields. The unit is also seen stronger after a court overturned an anti-gay law that drew Western criticism and halted aid payments.
Traders reported a unit of Royal Dutch Shell selling dollars in the session, boosting greenback liquidity. "We are expecting more dollar inflow next week for oil majors and the naira should gain some ground around the sub-162 level," one dealer said.
The west African country plans to issue a eurobond at the end of August to raise up to $1.5 billion. The government will use part of the inflows to support the cedi, which has slumped by about 40 percent against the dollar since January.
Ghana is also expected to begin talks with the International Monetary Fund next month on assistance in fixing the economy, including stabilising the currency. Analysts say the pace of the cedi's depreciation has slowed in anticipation of the planned eurobond sale and the IMF talks.
"We've seen some offers from offshore over the past week. We think the eurobond will have substantial benefits for the forex liquidity situation and the local currency," said Michael Akpakli, currency analyst at Barclays Bank Ghana. The local unit was trading at 3.06 to the dollar at 1300 GMT on Thursday, according to Bank of Ghana data.