The International Grains Council on Friday raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2014/15 to reflect larger-than-expected crops in Russia, the European Union and China. The IGC, in a monthly update, put world wheat production in 2014/15 at 713 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 702 million and now unchanged from last year's harvest result.
The largest revision was for Russia where the crop was put at 60 million tonnes, up 5 million from last month's forecast and well above the prior season's 52.1 million. "The world harvest will include an above average proportion of low/medium grade supplies and, while strong competition from maize (corn) is expected in most markets, feed wheat consumption is forecast to rise," the IGC said.
The EU's wheat crop was forecast to total 150.8 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 147.0 million and well above last year's 143.1 million-tonne harvest. China's crop was put at 125 million tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 122 million and last year's crop which totalled 121.9 million. Global carryover stocks at the end of the 2014/15 season were seen at 195 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 193 million and a year earlier total of 188 million.
"Owing to demand growth, carryover stocks are placed only slightly higher than before. Aggregate inventories in the major exporters are seen reaching a three-year peak," the IGC said. The organisation projected world corn production at 973 million tonnes, up four million from last month's forecast but still below the prior season's record 982-million tonne harvest.
"Northern hemisphere yield prospects continued to improve in August, including in the US where crops have benefited from a prolonged period of benign weather," the IGC said. The IGC raised its forecast for the US corn crop by 2 million tonnes to 355 million while projections for Ukraine and the European Union were also upwardly revised.
Global carryover corn stocks at the end of the 2014/15 season were put at 190 million tonnes, up from a previous forecast of 187 million and a year earlier total of 173 million. "The council's global ending stocks forecast is increased for a fourth consecutive month, with cumulative carryovers seen at their largest since 1987/88. Major exporter stocks appear ample," the IGC said.