Ghana's cedi is expected to remain stable in coming weeks, supported by positive investor sentiment ahead of the country's Eurobond issue, while east Africa's currencies are seen flat to weaker next week.
"It's been another positive week for the local currency. Forex liquidity has been firm, and with the Eurobond roadshow looming traders are optimistic on the cedi's outlook," Barclays Bank Ghana analyst Michael Akpakli said.
"The fundamentals point to a weaker shilling but the elephant in the room is the central bank," said Commercial Bank of Africa trader John Njenga.
The central bank pumped an unspecified amount of dollars into the market on Tuesday, lifting the shilling from 88.80/90, its lowest level since December 2011. Kenya is due to release August inflation data on Friday, with traders expecting a rise in inflation.
"If you print a high figure tomorrow it will point to a weaker shilling," added Njenga.
At 1044 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,612/2,622, weaker than last Thursday's close of 2,598/2,608. "We're seeing significant demand from players in the interbank market," said Faisal Bukenya, head of market making at Barclays Bank. "I think this will keep the shilling biased on the weaker side until players have comfortable positions," he said.
Bukenya said banks could be anticipating an uptick in corporate appetite in the coming weeks, which is driving their own demand. The shilling is down 3.5 percent against the dollar this year although it's seen supported in the medium term by inflows from offshore investors rushing for Uganda government debt and encouraged by warming relations between Uganda and its Western donors.
Market participants said they expect the shilling to trade in the 1,660-1,670 range over the coming days. The Bank of Tanzania said on its website that it traded $57.85 million on the interbank foreign exchange market over the past week.
The 2024 bond is due to be added to J.P. Morgan's Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) on August 29, potentially triggering more offshore interest. "We expect flows from the multinational oil companies and potential inflows from offshore investors buying local currency debt," Citibank's local unit said in a note to clients.
Many energy companies operating in Africa's biggest economy buy local currency to meet domestic obligations. Traders said the additional dollar flows could also trigger higher demand from importers who would take advantage of the cheaper dollars to bring forward their obligations.