The NA-149 (Multan-II) by-election, scheduled for October 16, is being viewed as a litmus test for the electoral strength of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) versus Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The seat was vacated by Javed Hashmi. In an anecdotal survey, conducted by Business Recorder, Javed Hashmi and Malik Aamir Dogar have emerged as strong contenders for the seat.
Though both men are contesting the by-poll as independents, Hashmi is being openly supported by PML-N whereas Dogar has secured PTI's support. However, the ruling PML-N has announced its full support for Hashmi, and has formed a committee with the objective of mustering support within their rank and file for him. Party sources told Business Recorder that there was considerable resentment against the party leadership for not fielding their own candidate.
The sources further said that Hamza Shahbaz Sharif, along with members of a committee, is personally supervising the campaign for Hashmi. The committee members include Punjab Prisons Minister Abdul Waheed Arain, Senator Rafique Rajwana, Member Punjab Public Affairs Unit Mian Saud Majeed, and party's leaders Rana Mehmood, Sheikh Tariq and other local leaders.
PTI vice chairman Shah Mehmood Qureshi, himself from Multan, is also keenly engaged in ensuring that Dogar defeats Hashmi in the by-elections and has openly announced the party's support for Aamir Dogar who had contested the 2013 general elections on PPP ticket.
The PTI's public meeting scheduled to be held in Multan on October 10 - six days before voting day - is widely regarded as a possible game changer as Imran Khan's public rallies are attracting huge crowds and public discontent against the PML-N government due to load-shedding, high inflationary pressures and slow response for flood-affected victims is at its peak.
The locals told this correspondent that Dogar has emerged as a strong contender following PTI's support, while a number of other independent candidates like Nadeem Qureshi, Ijaz Janjua, Malik Liaqat Dogar, Dr Khalid Khakwani, Tariq Naeem Ullah, Malik Fakhir and Shahid Mehmood have withdrawn their nomination papers in favour of Aamir Dogar.
Recently, a notable from Multan, Khan Mohammad Khani, also a close aide of a former prime minister, Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani, joined PTI and announced that he would run Aamir Dogar's campaign, which has further strengthened Dogar's position in the constituency.
PPP is taking part in the by-election and has fielded a former member of the Punjab Assembly, Dr Javed Siddiqui, but he is not a strong contender, according to local sources. A large number of PPP supporters have switched their loyalties in favour of PTI due to the PPP-led coalition government's failure to carry out development projects as well as its failure to fulfill its commitment of a "Seraiki province" in Punjab. In 2002 general elections, PPP's Malik Liaqat Ali Dogar won from this constituency, while Javed Hashmi won from the constituency twice - on PML-N ticket in 2008 and on PTI ticket in 2013 general elections.