Forecasters are calling for much-needed rains that are due to reach Brazil's south-eastern coffee and sugar cane belts by Thursday, ending a three-week dry spell that has supported futures markets in recent weeks. May coffee futures slipped 3 percent on Tuesday as forecast models by Reuters Weather Dashboard showed heavier rains were expected next week than were projected on Monday.
The coffee-rich Triangulo Mineiro and the South Minas regions along the border between Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo states are expected to get between 11 millimeters (0.4 inches) and 17 mm a day for the week starting on Saturday, the Weather Dashboard showed. Minas Gerais, which produces half of Brazil's coffee crop, has seen 57 percent below the average precipitation so far in January, which is the wettest month for the state typically, Weather Dashboard showed.
If the Dashboard's forecast precipitation through the rest of the month is confirmed, that deficit in rainfall will fall to 46 percent by January 31. A cold front is expected to push up from the southern states and break a hot, dry air mass that dominated the coffee and sugar cane regions and sent temperatures to their hottest levels for the year of 37 Celsius (100F) on Monday.
US-based Commodities Weather Group said "guidance is starting to show better support from the Tropical Pacific for showers to possibly increase around the start of February" in the drier areas. Marco Antonio dos Santos, senior forecaster for local consultants Somar, said on Monday that a "good volume" of rains were expected in much of Brazil in the last week of January and first half of February. The dry spell over the past three weeks had traders concerned of a potential repeat of last years epic January-February drought that erased as much as 10 percent from the world's largest coffee harvest.