No, Pakistan is not really facing a drought – at least not yet. However, as per news reports, water level in Tarbela and Mangla dams has reached the dead level due to below-normal monsoon rains, leading IRSA to plan fresh cuts in the provincial share for water.
This raises the specter of drought if Pakistan does not receive substantial weather system in the remaining days of July, with devastating prospects for Kharif crop sowing season. Recall that the country had last faced drought conditions in year 2001, which according to FAO-UN publications at the time knocked off one percent out of the GDP growth rate at the time.
What does this mean for Pakistan’s looming water security? Despite fears of severe water shortage in urban areas, agriculture sector will be the biggest casualty as 95 percent of the country’s water requirement is accounted for by the sector. Moreover, while delayed precipitation may lead to enough recovery of reservoirs to service the needs of domestic household water consumption, conditions of agricultural drought may yet be on the cards.
The World Food Program defines agricultural drought as conditions of insufficient moisture in soil to meet the needs of crop cultivation. As Pakistan’s cash crops such as rice, cotton and sugarcane are highly water-intensive, lower than normal availability for irrigation could have devastating consequences for the sector.
This column has strongly argued for achieving efficiency in agricultural techniques and changing cropping patterns to less water-thirsty plants (read “More crop per drop” published June 22, 2018). However, the situation calls for urgent mitigative steps and short-term solutions for Pakistan’s largest sector by labour employment.
One way is to look at regions that suffer from perennial drought conditions and unpredictable rain patterns. California, for example, remains one such prime example where rainwater harvesting is relied heavily upon. By constructing ridges of soil along the contours of fields, rainfall is held back from running off hard-baked soil too quickly. Similarly, capturing rainwater in above and below ground rainwater catchment’s tanks allows farmers to collect water on roofs of buildings and channels for irrigation purposes.
Israel is another example, where frequent drought conditions are responded to with innovative yet low-cost solutions. Fog catchers are used by farmers, which simply catch fog that rolls in. Another method of atmospheric water generation is used in Chile, where thousands of gallons of water are captured daily by using desiccants for condensation of fog. In the same vein, South Africa has recently begun to dig deep wells in dams to slow down evaporation of stored water from surface by cooling it down.
Of course, encouraging these procedures require massive and urgent governmental efforts to create public awareness at Tehsil and Taluka level. At the same time, localized efforts are also required by non-governmental organizations active in rural areas to increase technical literacy in farmers seeking to meet the crisis in near-term.
In the medium term, Pakistan needs to adopt world-recognized methods of desalination and waste-water recycling. While the pipedream of mega-dam construction may one day become a reality, increased uncertainty of weather patterns due to climate change means that the agricultural sector’s dependence on conventional means such as irrigated water also needs to evolve.To this end, research should be undertaken to explore transformation of agriculture from irrigated to rain-fed dependent crops.
The threat of water security is not only real but also becoming increasingly palpable. Pakistan needs to evolve synchronized short-, medium- and long-term strategies to face the problem head on. Are the concerned authorities listening?