Whether it is the strict enforcement of election laws by the ECP or something else – roaming around in Karachi does not tell you elections are just two weeks away. This is easily the dullest election campaign, if it can be called one, in Karachi since at least 1988. Another first this time around the perceived lost ground of Karachi’s strongest political party, MQM, which has led to increased interest in Karachi polls.
The heightened interest can be gauged from the fact that the heads of all the four major political parties, namely, PML-N, PTI, PPP and MQM are contesting from different Karachi constituencies. Barring 2002, where the MQM were challenged by the MMA, though still managed to be the clear winners, Karachi has elected the MQM time and time again.
Things appear a little more complex this time around. The MQM is no more the MQM of old, and the rifts, infightings, splits, surely stand to dent the strong base. The delimitation of constituencies, which some term controversial, may also go against the MQM. Most observers opine that the PPP stands to gain most from new delimitation – and could add to its tally of traditionally 1-2 seats from the financial capital of Pakistan – to a more meaningful 5-6.
The other aspirant is the PTI. The Imran Khan led party threw a massive surprise in 2013 and secured over 0.7 million votes in Karachi – the most for any party other than the MQM ever. PTI has again pinned high hopes from Karachi, mostly stemming from MQM’s apparent disintegration, but it seems to be built more in hope than reality. The PTI has done miserably in the by-elections and last local body elections, where it fell to the fifth slot.
Had it been only for MQM’s post August 22 problems, PTI’s optimism would have made more sense. But the entry of the Mustafa Kamal led PSP is all set to deal more blows to the PTI than it can to the MQM. Having served and delivered in Karachi and at the same time representing the Urdu speaking community, with a much stronger party organization – the PSP could hope to attract more non-MQM voters than the PTI.
And now the MQM itself. The once mighty political party seems its own shadow today. But the party is by no means over yet. Despite the boycott call from its London faction, MQM holds a massive voter base in at least two of Karachi’s five districts. The average winning margin in last elections for the MQM was a massive 64000 votes or three times over the runner-up in Karachi. Reversing that will definitely take some doing, especially in the traditional strongholds, despite all the troubles.
Lastly, there is the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) factor, which cannot be overlooked this time around. The TLP may end up winning nothing – but it promises to be a party spoiler for many. In fact, the only party campaigning with visibility in Karachi is the TLP. The TLP seems to have strong presence in mostly MQM dominated constituencies – and this is one factor where the likes of PTI and PPP can hope to cash on TLP’s gain. From what it appears, Karachi polls are going to be one intriguing study, and it doesn’t look likely to be a repeat of 2013.