Coffee falls on large Brazil crop forecast, sugar firms

28 Apr, 2015

Coffee futures on ICE fell to the lowest since March on Monday, weighed down by a forecast at the high end of estimates for top grower Brazil, while raw sugar rose in a choppy session that pushed the May/July spread to a discount ahead of the spot contract's expiry.
Cocoa futures also jumped to their highest since March, extending gains, with traders citing fund buying.
Coffee futures fell more than 3 percent after Mercon Coffee Group estimated Brazil would produce 50.3 million 60-kg bags in the upcoming 2015/16 crop. Commodity broker Marex Spectron pegged it at 49 million bags.
While both forecasts were down from their 2014/15 estimates, they were at the high end of estimates after the 2014 drought.
Second-month arabica futures settled down 5.1 cents, or 3.6 percent, at $1.3705 per lb, after falling to $1.346, the lowest since March 18.
July robusta coffee futures on ICE ended down $56, or 3.1 percent, at $1,760 a tonne, with the session low at $1,751, the lowest since March 31.
Commodity broker Marex Spectron forecast a 2015/16 global coffee deficit of 2.6 million 60-kg bags, compared with a deficit of 6.9 million bags in 2014/15. Raw sugar rose for the fourth straight session but the May/July spread traded widely and moved to a discount as large as 0.11 cent per lb, from a 0.02 cent premium on Friday. This volatility came ahead of the May contract's expiry on Thursday.
"The way the May/July spread is going, it looks like someone is not too excited to be stuck with a lot of sugar," said a US trader.
The May raw sugar contract
closed up 0.08 cent, or 0.6 percent, at 13.31 cents a lb. Open interest on Friday was a heavy 83,538 lots, down just 9,149 lots in the prior session, causing some to forecast a record large delivery. Volume on Monday, however, was heavy with more than 37,000 lots trading.
August refined sugar on ICE ended up $3.10, or 0.8 percent, at $377.80 per tonne.
New York cocoa rose for the fourth straight session as funds viewed the weak cocoa grind data in Asia as better than expected, traders said.
Second-month New York cocoa finished up $37, or 1.3 percent, at $2,922 per tonne, while London July cocoa closed up 18 pounds, or 0.9 percent, at 1,997 pounds per tonne.

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