After a break of 17 long years local government elections in all but one (Balochistan's Ormara cantonment due to reasons unrelated to political activity) cantonment boards have been held, marking an important phase in the restoration of local government system. These polls are to be followed up by province-wide LG elections in KPK, Punjab, and Sindh. Balochistan has already fulfilled its obligation. The two largest provinces, Punjab and Sindh, have been trying to avoid, as far as possible, holding elections to this third-tier of government, using one pretext or the other. The Election Commission of Pakistan did not show much interest in fulfilling its responsibility, either. Thanks to the apex court's consistent focus on the issue, LG polls are now to be held in KPK on May 23 and in Punjab and Sindh on September 20.
The unofficial results of Saturday's polls in cantonment boards reflect two important trends. First, various political parties hang on to their already proven level of popularity. The PML-N, PTI and MQM have retained dominance in their respective strongholds with 68, 43 and 19 seats, each. Similarly, the JI and ANP have won seats commensurate with their existing position, picking up 6 and 2 seats, respectively. But the PPP ruling in Sindh has bucked the trend, winning only 7 seats - one more than the JI. Since the party draws its support mainly from rural Sindh, it may not want to worry too much about poor showing in cantonment areas. It can surely do much better in province-wide LG polls. Overall, however, it is gradually conceding its position as one of the country's two largest parties to PTI. It has failed to make its presence felt outside Sindh, while PTI, aside from KPK, has secured seats, though small in number, in Karachi, Lahore and some other cantonment areas of Punjab as well. A second important feature of Saturday's election is the success of an exceptionally large number of independent candidates. As many as 54 independents have emerged victorious. That shows the voters attach a lot of importance to candidates' individual reputation as small constituencies' size allows both sides to connect better. Candidates' reputation and ability to deliver obviously is an important consideration.
It would be wrong, however, to equate voter behaviour in LG elections with national elections. As is evident from the cantonment board polls, local communities give about as much importance to a candidate's familiarity with, and interest in, addressing local problems than his/her party affiliation. In provincial and national assemblies' elections, on the other hand, people tend to vote mainly on party basis. Hence only when denied party tickets aspirants stand as independent candidates. Interestingly, Khawaja Saad Rafiq, who has been facing rigging allegations from his PTI opponents in a constituency that includes a large part of Lahore cantonment, thinks his party's overwhelming success in Saturday's LG polls is a vindication of his position. Some similar examples have been cited by media persons to make the same claim. That may or may not be a valid claim. Nonetheless, from the way the voters have supported a large number of independents (most are likely to join the ruling parties) this election does not seem to be a good barometer of judging the political parties' past performance or future prospects in the general elections.