Good crops in the key exporting regions and high stocks will support Russia's wheat exports at the start of 2015/16 marketing season from July 1, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said on Wednesday. Exports from Russia, one of the world's major wheat exporters, will be high despite a floating tax to be levied by the government from July 1, it added.
The country's wheat exports could total 2.5 million tonnes in July and 3.5 million tonnes in August, up from 1.1 million tonnes in June, SovEcon said in a note. Russia's new wheat export tax is set at 50 percent of the customs price per tonne minus 5,500 roubles ($101), but not less than 50 roubles a tonne. This formula makes the duty level highly dependent on rouble volatility.
The tax will not affect exports of the main class of Russian wheat - the fourth class - but could limit exports of higher-quality wheat, such as durum, the consultancy added. SovEcon sees Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports at 22.3 million tonnes, including about 600,000 tonnes of supplies to Kazakhstan and 160,000 tonnes of flour.