Brazilian coffee stocks in private hands were estimated at 14.369 million 60-kg bags on March 31, down 5.6 percent from the 15.217 million bags on that day a year ago, the agriculture ministry crop supply agency Conab said on Wednesday. Futures market prices for coffee have been volatile since a severe Brazilian drought in early 2014 stressed the world's largest coffee belt and caused trees to falter and fall short of producing to their full potential.
Conab said stocks in warehouses of co-operatives were estimated at 5.34 million bags of arabica and 159,000 bags of robusta, or conillon, on March 31. Stocks of the commodity in the hands of exporters at the end of March were seen at 2.94 million bags of arabica and 276,000 bags of robusta, the agency added. Output of the 2014/2015 crop was estimated at 45.05 million bags. Stocks at the end of March would have held no coffee from the current 2015/2016 harvest, which is in its final weeks.
Conab said carry-over stocks in the private sector fell to as low as 8.416 million bags on March 31, 2012 and nearly as low on that day in 2010 and 2004 as well. Stocks are expected to fall even lower than this year's carry-over in March of 2016 due to the two years of severe drought in the coffee belt and disappointing output from this harvest as well as from the 2014 harvest.