US natural gas futures fell 3.6 percent to a three-year low on Thursday on forecasts for warmer weather and low heating demand and continued strong production expected to keep storage more full than normal. The US Energy Information Administration said utilities added 98 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended September 25, just shy of analysts' 100-bcf estimate in a Reuters poll.
That compared with builds of 106 bcf in the previous week, 110 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average increase of 94 bcf. Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell into oversold territory for the first time since June when it closed down 9.1 cents at $2.433 per million British thermal units.
In addition to the front-month decline, calendar year 2016 and 2017 futures both fell to nine year lows, while next-day gas on the Intercontinental Exchange at the Henry Hub in Louisiana and Chicago both fell to three-year lows. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Joaquin could hit the New York area as a tropical storm on Tuesday, testing energy infrastructure upgrades made since Hurricane Sandy slammed into the area in 2012.
The storm could cause major power outages if it hits the US East Coast, which traders said could briefly lower demand for power and the gas burned to generate electricity. The latest Global Forecast System weather model predicted temperatures in the lower 48 US states would warm to above-normal levels, cutting heating demand, with population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) sliding to 72.
That compares with a forecast 85 HDDs on Wednesday and a 30-year norm of 98 HDDs. Thomson Reuters Analytics projected average consumption from commercial, residential, power and industrial customers in the lower 48 would edge up to 56.0 billion cubic feet per day over the next two weeks, from a forecast 56.1 bcfd on Wednesday. That compares with a 30-year norm of 53.5 bcfd.
Power generators were expected to use an average 25.0 bcfd of gas over the next two weeks, up from a forecast 24.4 bcfd on Wednesday. That compares with 23.7 bcfd at the same time last year and a 30-year norm of 20.0 bcfd. Gas production in the lower 48 was expected to slide to 73.8 bcfd on Thursday from 74.8 on Wednesday, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics. That compared with 71.0 bcfd a year ago and an all-time high of 75.3 bcfd in August.