African currencies week ahead: Zambian kwacha seen weakening; Ghana's cedi to rally

11 Oct, 2015

Zambia's kwacha may depreciate next week due challenges including electricity shortages and tumbling copper prices, while Ghana's cedi is expected to rally due to expected inflows from an annual dollar loan to fund cocoa purchases.
"We are of the view that due to fundamental weaknesses in the economy, the Kwacha could weaken in the medium term," Zambia National Commercial bank said in a note on Thursday.
The cedi, which rebounded strongly in July after slumping nearly 30 percent in the first half of the year, was trading at 3.8392 at 1254 GMT on Thursday.
The government launched a Eurobond at 10.75 percent coupon rate on Wednesday. It also signed a $1.8 billion loan deal in Paris in September for 2015/16 crop purchases. Both these factors should support the currency in the months ahead.
"Now that the Eurobond money is raised, we would expect the cedi to record very significant gains on the market, even before the dollars come to the market, as a result of short selling," said Joseph Biggles Aponsah, of Dortis Research in Accra. "The gains will be largely fuelled by the portion of the proceeds that will be exchanged for domestic settlements," he said.
The shilling rose to a high of 102.90 earlier in the week and traders said it would push to breach that level.
"In the coming days it should try and break that driven by tight liquidity and subdued demand," said a trader at a commercial bank, adding importers were waiting to see how far the shilling will strengthen.
"All focus in the market will be on the rate decision, until then activity on both sides will likely be muted," said Ahmed Kalule, trader at Bank of Africa.
He said the shilling will probably oscillate between 3,665-3,695 ahead of Bank of Uganda (BoU) policy rate decision due on October 15.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,165/2,175 to the dollar on Thursday, unchanged from a week ago.
"The shilling is expected to hold steady or appreciate slightly against the dollar because of a slowdown in business activity as the October 25 presidential and parliamentary elections approach. Liquidity tightness in the shilling is also supporting the local currency," said Theopistar Mnale, a dealer at TIB Development Bank.

Read Comments