Rains slowed Brazil's main center-south sugar output in late November to 704,000 tonnes, down from an already meager output of 1.2 million tonnes in the first half of last month, the main cane industry association Unica said on Tuesday. Unica's report fell below market production forecasts of around 760,000 tonnes during the second fortnight of November.
This did not stop futures prices from slipping more than 1 percent after Unica's data was published. New York ICE futures prices have climbed nearly 40 percent since late September when rains began to pick up with greater frequency in the center-south. The heavier than usual rains this season are attributed to the influence of El Nino, which often translates into greater moisture in Brazil's south and southeast.
The crushing season for the world's largest sugar producer and exporter is drawing to an end, when mills are typically forced to suspend operations due to the onset of heavy rain in center-south. Precipitation typically picks up in December and peaks in January-February in the region. Unica said that many mills were delaying their scheduled end of harvest. Mills in the region lost 35 days of crushing on average between April and November due to rain.
So far this season, which kicked off in April, only 47 of the roughly 360 mills in the region have ended harvest by the close of November. A year ago, 137 mills had already ended the season. The total cane crush in the center-south, which accounts for 90 percent of Brazil's sugar and ethanol output, reached 563.3 million tonnes, up from 554.2 million a year ago. The market estimates for the total crush this season, however, are around 600 million tonnes.
The rains have diluted the concentration of sucrose in the cane, which is the type of sugar that most easily crystallizes. Unica therefore expects mills to favor ethanol production more than sugar during the final leg of harvest. The so-called ATR, or recoverable sugars, in the cane fell on average to 119.3 kilograms in late November versus 138.2 kg a year ago, Unica said. Unica said that ethanol sales since the start of harvest in April have reached 20.3 billion litters, with 18.77 billion of that consumed domestically and 1.5 billion litters shipped abroad by the end of November. Sales of ethanol represent a nearly 25 percent surge from last year's 16.2 billion liters sold over the same eight month period.