The Karachi operation that has gone on under the current government has so far reaped fruits however experts fear that the peace will only persevere while the rangers remain deployed actively in the city. Clearly, this is not a long-term solution. Lessons need to be learned from other big cities around the world which have witnessed a drop from the peak of mafia crimes to a point of stability and normalcy. New York City, one of the largest cities in the world, was wired with organised crime, especially during the 20th century. However, a strengthening of the New York Police Department and strict laws against the possession of weapons made NYC one of the safest cities in the US by 2006, according to the FBI's crime statistics.
Similarly, Sao Paulo, the largest city in South America, has had its own history of gang-spurred violent crime. That city did not take long to learn from its mistakes either. Following in the footsteps of NYC to strengthen the police force, Sao Paulo has seen crime fall significantly within a few years. Right next door, in Mumbai which had suffered from its own share of big city violence, there is also a recovery from the shadowy past thanks to some new policies for policing and law enforcement based on use of potent information systems for recording and investigating criminal cases.
The answer to the mega city's woes is to strengthen the police and have its independence and autonomy from the political clout. Intervention from paramilitary forces can calm down the pace of violence and bring temporarily peace but it may not be able to ensure normalcy over the long run for the city to benefit from its economic potential.
The rangers' operations are like symptomatic relief; not a cure to the chronic disease. The idea of bringing paramilitary forces to the city in 1989 was to rid the city of big crime groups and concurrently let the police build its strength, capacity and capability to sustain the peace. Yet this has never happened and every time the crime rates and lawlessness peaks, paramilitary forces intervene to cool down the pace without delving into solutions to the structural problems.
The dynamics of the city have evolved in the past decade or so after the influx of millions of refugees and migrants from various parts of the country, particularly southern Punjab and Fata. The religious-backed organizations have also strengthened their foothold in Karachi. Prior to this, only one ethnic group (and its sub sets) had been dominant in the city and it was relatively easier to handle. Now there are multiple ethnic groups with varying political backing which operate in the city. Rising tensions among these contesting groups make life of the city's inhabitants more and more difficult and debilitates the potential of this commercial hub.
The current impasse over the extension of the rangers is also symptomatic of these competing interests. The provincial ruling party, PPP wants to curtail the ability of federal law enforcers to take action without the prior approval of the provincial government. This would imply an inherent immunity for power groups associated with PPP. If the provincial government gets what it wants; it will make the operation biased and could fuel more violence and unrest. This option should be ruled out.
MQM wants the operation to continue in a way to extend it to the rest of the province as well. Their sense seems to be that they are in the crosshairs anyway, so the ambit should expand to others also. If the operation remains Karachi centric, MQM appears to lose while all others are potential gainers. This does not seem to be an optimal solution as already a high budget is allocated to rangers and other law enforcing agencies. Further expansion through the province may strain resources. Also, the rest of the province, arguably, does not contend with the same level of organised crime as that which has warranted an extended stay of paramilitary force in Karachi.
The central government (PML-N) seemingly wants to continue to deal through federal law enforcers and there is an apparent trust deficit over the will and ability of the provincial authorities. Or perhaps, the provincial authorities have their vested interests to guard.
From the public perspectives, the law and order situation of the city has visibly improved in recent times; much of this success is a direct consequence of the operation. It is also evident that a few convictions have been secured against those arrested in the drive. However, there have been no convictions among political people arrested so far such as MQM's Amir Khan and PPP's Dr Asim Husain.
The current impasse exposes the fault line between the levels of government over the objectives of the cleanup drive and who it will take down. The security experts are of the view that it is premature to take the rangers out of the equation as the operation is yet not complete and the police is oft party, often incapable of handling the nature and rampant volume of crime in the city.
It's a chicken and egg problem. If the rangers are taken out of the province, law and order situation may worsen within days. It's not worth taking the risk. But with rangers' presence, the political chaos in the assembly may come down to streets in the form of crime.
There is a need to think out the box - let the rangers move in co-ordination with the police and the utmost need is to strengthen the police. Also, come up with a formula to have an autonomous city police body with greater power and budget.
To date, the nexus of the rangers and police has not worked. The provincial authorities still consider the rangers as temporary guests despite their consistent presence in the city for the past 26 years. And rightly so, armed forces should be deployed at borders; not in cities. The police in Karachi have not really evolved into a strong law enforcement agency. The externality of the presence of the rangers in the city for so long is that their needs in other areas have been compromised.
In Sindh, the budget allocation for police is 8.8 percent of a total outlay in FY16 which is much higher than seven percent and six percent in KPK and Punjab, respectively. Apart from this, the Sindh government also spends on the rangers, every year. The duplication of law enforcing resources on one operation is wasting scarce fiscal resources.
The goal should be to strengthen the police force in Karachi and the utmost need is to take the institution out of the political influence no matter what is takes. The police needs to move in a similar direction as NYPD and metropolitan police forces of other major cities. Only peace can unlock the true potential of this vibrant but embattled city.