In the most keenly-watched and hotly contested Lodhran by-election PTI's Jehangir Tareen has defeated the PML-N's Siddique Khan Baloch who had won the same seat in the 2013 general elections as an independent candidate before joining the ruling party. According to unofficial results, Tareen secured 129,606 votes against Baloch's 93,183 votes, refuting most pundits' predictions that the latter would win, though by a small margin. The seat, it may be recalled, had fallen vacant after an election tribunal, hearing a petition filed by Tareen alleging that Baloch had used a fake graduation degree to contest NA-154 in the 2008 general elections and committed massive irregularities in 2013, had disqualified him. The Supreme Court later set aside the disqualification order while ordering reelection.
It is worthwhile to note that when previously Baloch contested the seat as an independent, the Nawaz League candidate then had secured some 46,000 votes. This time he had his own votes as well as the Nawaz League vote bank to rely on, and yet he lost. The election, however, was about more than a single constituency's result; it was about the wider issues concerning party politics and the electoral process. The outcome of course holds great significance, due to several reasons, for the PTI which had faced some reversals in different by-polls, and continues to wage a ceaseless campaign against alleged electoral rigging in the last elections. First, of course is the fact that Tareen is vice president of the party hence his success is to give a boost to PTI's public standing. Second, and more importantly, the PTI candidate had invested a lot of effort and money to seek redress via an election tribunal to prove that he was unfairly made to lose his previous bid. He, and with him his party, can now claim vindication. Third, the PTI has also managed to dispel the general impression that it has popular following only in urban areas. Tareen took a lead over the PML-N candidate in both urban and rural areas.
Although usually ruling party candidates tend to win in such situations, that has not been happening in recent months. There are lessons for the Nawaz League in this and the other two recent National Assembly by-elections to ponder. Its candidate won the NA-122 in Lahore by a very narrow margin and lost the provincial assembly seat under it. More important than that in NA-144 Okara by-poll, an independent candidate beat both the PML-N and the PTI for backing unpopular candidates. This time the ruling party used all its resources to garner support for Baloch. Apparently, it was with an eye on the upcoming Lodhran contest that the Prime Minister announced the 'Kissan Package' - a substantial support plan for the farmers. He also made a special trip to Lodhran to announce a development programme worth Rs 2.5 billion for the district. None of it has helped. In fact, there are other examples from the previous government when the ruling party leaders spent huge amounts of public money on the construction of infrastructure projects in their own constituencies, and yet failed to win the needed votes. The voters are much smarter than the politicians are willing to give them the credit for. Person of means still have an advantage over less privileged individuals. But going by the Lodhran, Okara and even Lahore by-elections, what matters to the people, apart from a preference for one or the other party, are individual candidates' credentials.