An Indian newspaper, The Hindu, has quoted a signboard posted at that country's military base camp at Siachen Glacier as saying "snout of the glacier was here on 10th April, 2005" noting that the glacier's starting point has since moved by about a kilometer. It does not take much head scratching to figure out what may have caused it or the catastrophic consequences it holds for all peoples living in this part of the world.
One obvious reason, of course, is the phenomenon of global warming, caused by greenhouse gas emissions from industrial activity. The second and an easily controllable factor contributing to fast pace melting of the Siachen Glacier is its militarization, started by India back in 1984 when it occupied part of the glacier - Saltoro ridge to be exact - through furtive military intrusion. And Pakistan responded by seizing control of Gyong La Pass and its surrounding mountains, blocking Indian access to the world's second highest peak, K-2, and that country's access route to Leh district in Kashmir under its control.
Periodically, the two sides have been firing ordnance in each other's direction. Even when they are not fighting (a cease-fire has been in place since 2003) they have to dig bunkers for which they use explosives, and light fires to cook or just to stay warm. Then helicopters fly in and out to ferry men and materials. The activity has accelerated melting of the glacier, resulting in human tragedies every now and then. Just last week, an avalanche killed ten Indian soldiers. About three years ago, Pakistan lost 138 men in an avalanche disaster.
The newspaper report notes that as many as 2000 soldiers from both sides have lost their lives during the last three decades. Most of the fatalities have happened because of extreme weather conditions with the soldiers suffering from height-related illnesses such as cerebral edema, fluid build-up in chest, and altitude sickness. The casualties are much higher on the Indian side than on Pakistan's. According to independent sources, on an average one Pakistani soldier is killed every fourth day while one Indian soldier is killed every other day. This is because Indians hold higher altitude positions than Pakistanis. Aside from weather conditions softening of the glacier and resultant avalanches are a bigger enemy for the soldiers than the enemy they come to fight. Nature is saying loud and clear: 'you can fight one another as long as you want but you cannot fight me beyond a certain point'.
Expressing regret over the loss of ten lives Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said "these are unpredictable shows of strength by nature." Weather conditions may be unpredictable but not the glacier's melting, which environmental scientists have been predicting for quite some time. We have been warned of what is happening to our Himalayan glaciers, and a consequent early onset of alternating periods of floods and droughts disrupting the region's economies and its peoples' living conditions. In fact, recurring floods during the recent years show the process has already started.
Parrikar tried to defend the status quo saying, "the decision on Siachen is based on the security of the nation ... I am disturbed by the loss of life but I think that due to this, some other solution would not be the proper analysis." The defence minister of course was talking about military security, but in this particular context what is at stake is socio-economic security since the glacier feeds both countries river system -life blood of agricultural activity providing food security to their peoples. As for the 'improper analysis' - allusion to a troops withdrawal proposal - it is worthwhile to recall that until 1984 the area, even though located in the disputed Kashmir region, remained a peaceful, un-demarcated zone principally because of its uninhabitable environment. That did not cause any security problem until India turned it into one. Notably, under the July 1972 Simla Agreement the two sides had decided that the Line of Control resulting from the December '71 cease-fire "shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognised positions of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations." Yet India went on to violate the agreement when it altered the 'recognised positions' in the disputed area by climbing on to Siachen and climbing down on its own moral commitment. The two countries have since remained locked in a futile stand-off.
Several rounds of talks have failed to find an amicable solution because of Indian intransigence. A manifestly sane solution, proposed by Pakistan, is for the two sides to demilitarise the glacier and pull back to the 1984 positions. In fact, at one point negotiations indicated settlement along those lines. But the Indian army is said to have shot down the idea, apparently, because it gives the generals a vainglorious feeling of triumph over a traditional rival. Hence the insistence that any settlement has to recognise India's claims over what it regards as strategic heights through authentication of 'current positions'. The key argument against pull back is that Pakistan cannot be trusted, and that if Indian troops withdraw it might occupy the vacated heights. Even if for argument's sake the contention is accepted as valid, that can still happen after authentication of current positions, as the example set by India itself in 1984 proves. As noted earlier, its troops marched on to the glacier to set up positions there despite an agreement not to alter the situation in the disputed area. Depending on intentions, a way can be found to address the stated concern through verifiable options, such as satellite surveillance.
Nature, of course, does not recognise authentic or fake claims of men. The news that the battlefield has moved by a whole kilometer is a nature's dire reminder that men must stop disturbing its balance for the sake of their own safety and security against impending disasters. It is in the interest of all of us on both sides to understand that we have to face the common threat together. The senseless confrontation needs to come to an end, and the Siachen Glacier declared a demilitarised zone.
saida_fazal@yahoo.com