Can Pakistan play a meaningful mediatory role in ironing out Arab-Iranian rift? For a country to undertake a mediatory mission it must have strong credentials with effective diplomacy, robust economy and international standing. No doubt Pakistan is the only Islamic nuclear power and fields a professional military, but the assets notwithstanding, it has had to face manifold problems since the last decade. For instance, it was termed as "epicenter of terrorism" and as both victim and perpetrator of militancy - thereby tarnishing its global image and impeding national development plans.
As a non-Arab West Asian country, Pakistan has a large population and a strong military; however the potential to play a role as it did in the 1960s is quite limited. Then, it was looked upon as a model of development and stability. Its military advisers and contingents were eagerly sought for training in many Gulf countries. But today, plagued with economic woes, it suffers from acute limitations as a weak economic power.
Can it offer anything besides unskilled labor or sending forces for UN peacekeeping operations? The fact is that it has been mostly dependent upon GCC for economic remittances and donations. Itself a victim of militancy since the last two decades, it is fighting a war against terror on many fronts: Balochistan in the west, Fata in north-west, India in east and internally counter-terrorism.
Previously, it avoided taking open sides in the ME conflicts - be it in Iran-Iraq, Syria, and lately in Yemen. The Sharif government has taken a prudent step in consulting parliament in March 2015 over the Yemeni issue. The Gulf countries were naturally peeved at Pakistan's lack of cooperation but Pakistan while reaffirming friendship stated that it would uphold their territorial integrity but denied offer of military deployment of troops. Pakistan could at best act as a facilitator and refrain from any partisan involvement or even one that is perceived as such.
All nations act in hard headed way to safeguard their own national interests. China, Pakistan's close friend, only massed some its troops and offered military equipment and diplomatic support but no military involvement in 1971 at the time of then East Pakistan's secession.
Therefore, what Pakistan can do at best is to push for cease-fire and urge restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia .Should it demonstrate overt leanings for any side it might open floodgates of jihadi elements raring to go and fight there and simultaneously control own sectarian conflicts. Pakistan cannot afford to get involved in this kind of proxy warfare as it has already been hurt.
In March 2015, Saudi Arabia had proposed to Iran the formation of a joint security committee to look into the issues of mutual concern. Outrightly, Tehran did not reject it but events in Syria and Yemen have obstructed serious interaction between the two ME rivals. Establishment of such a forum will provide some form of mechanism for bilateral engagement on thorny issues.
Robust diplomacy should be employed by officials of Iran and Saudi Arabia to exercise extreme restraint and engage in informal communication to convey messages. In this regard, the setting up of focal persons is a positive step. Additionally, Saudi and Iran social media or press should cease hurling threats and insulting each other's leadership, deriding other people and mutual beliefs.
Besides, a minimum communication channel should remain open through hot lines to avert accidental war. Military exercises (naval, air and land) should be announced well in advance. Due to proximity the two countries' build-up of military personnel and other assets can be misperceived as preparations for a ground attack.
Barring some unfortunate incidents it is more likely that tensions would gradually simmer down as cooler heads prevail on both sides. Yet analysts prognosticate that Saudi-Iranian hegemonic struggle in the ME may continue by projecting influence through proxies in Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. But in case the paradigm of economic cooperation and "win-win" overrides real-politik any adventurism could be limited, if not completely avoided.
On the negative side, the political atmospherics could worsen if fighting in Yemen does not cease and opposing sides refuse to freeze their military advances. But looking positively, Iran and Saudi Arabia have great economic stakes and a window of opportunity in reducing tensions and building their economies. Tehran has just been partially cleared of US nuclear-related sanctions while Riyadh is facing a serious fiscal deficit issues due to over-production of oil in the global market. It has a youth bulge with high expectations for reform and democracy.
The Arab Spring has made many Arab monarchies nervous. In this regard, Iraq could play a vital role as a balancer in the game of oil. Saudi Arabia fears that Iran with help of Iraq will try to take control of Opec cartel. Baghdad's neutrality on the issue can be helpful in forestalling confrontation between two neighbours with whom it shares large borders.
Premier Nawaz Sharif and General Raheel Sharif, especially the military, have come down hard on terrorist sanctuaries and sources of foreign funding and support to various sects and like-minded NGOs and media houses in Pakistan. Albeit the army has performed fairly well, the civil administration needs to do more to carry forward the campaign to logical conclusion. National Action Plan's implementation leaves it with many loop-holes: use of hateful expression, revision of school syllabi, control of terror financing, legal reforms and check on social media and religious gatherings. In this regard, Punjab province needs to be tackled soon.
In this age of geo-economics, nations tend to act in their cold-blooded national interests. Regional connectivity, trade, commerce and non-traditional issues have become salient. Iran after decades of imposed sanctions and relative isolation is repositioning itself for economic revival through investments, loans, trade and commerce, technological cooperation with the West and its institutions that will benefit Iran, the region and the world economy. Unfreezing of $100billion of blocked funds in Western banks and future Chinese trade of $60 billion in the next decade are hopeful prospects for revival of its economy
Some writers, relying on conspiracy theories, opine that the US does not necessarily fear the much- talked about 'chaos theory' in the ME. After pivoting to Asia-Pacific and with decreasing reliance on the ME oil, add these writers, it suits the US to let the inter-civilizational fighting in the Islamic world to linger on and hemorrhage Muslim solidarity. In their calculus, this would also contain the Chinese influence in the ME.
Pakistan is making efforts in effecting reconciliation in Afghanistan between the Afghan Taliban and Kabul government. Regional compulsions and geopolitical seismic shifts are nudging it to improve working relations with India.
Pakistani quest in mending fences between the Iranians and Saudis may seem a tall order - given the latter's historical distrust; however a grateful act of helping the two estranged Muslim neighbours to reconcile is a positive move. Further, it may bear domestic dividends for the Nawaz Sharif government if it succeeds; but even if it does not, it would soothe the conscience of many Pakistanis that it has done its bit to heal its Muslim friends' grievances instead of sitting on the sidelines.
But more seriously, Pakistan has to first and foremost set its own house in order, improve law and order situation, drastically upgrade educational system, fast track economic development and improve governance, eliminate militancy and terrorism in all forms and choke sources of funding and initiate grand regional cooperation. In sum, only by intermeshing 'soft power' with 'hard power' (which Pakistan possesses) it can play an effective role as a credible mediator in defusing current tensions In the Gulf or those that may arise in future.
(The writer is Head, Department of International Relations National University of Modern Languages, Islamabad Campus)