Myanmr's military rulers do not intend to allow opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to become president any time soon, experts and officials said Sunday, pointing to a pro-government rally planned in Yangon, and dismissing earlier reports of an agreement.
Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi has been in negotiations to lift a constitutional obstacle to her nomination for president since her National League for Democracy party won a landslide in November.
But it seemed Sunday that no agreement was imminent, three weeks ahead of the deadline for nomination on March 17.
At least 500 supporters of outgoing President Thein Sein were planning a demonstration Sunday evening in the commercial capital Yangon, to oppose the possible amendment or suspension of the constitutional article in question.
"The demonstration, which has official permission, sends the message to any political entity that article 59 (f) is untouchable," said Thet Myo Oo, one of the organisers.
Article 59 (f) of the military-drafed text prohibits any Myanmar national with family members "owing allegiance to a foreign power" from becoming president. Suu Kyi's sons are British citizens.
Thet Myo Oo said the article must not be amended or suspended, for the sake of national security.
"Otherwise, people under the influence of foreign powers would take control of the country sooner or later," he said. "Then, the sovereignty of our country would be more or less be invaded."
The army appoints 25 per cent of each house of parliament, allowing it to veto any changes to the constitution. So Suu Kyi would need agreement from the military to push through any changes, despite her party's electoral victory.
Observers and officials last month said that talks were under way to secure such an agreement. But recent comments from army chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's indicated that was no longer the case.
"As Myanmar has been on the path of democratisation for just five years," any major changes should happen "at an opportune time," Min Aung Hlaing was quoted as saying by the army-run Myawaddy newspaper.
"In general, any amendment should not undermine our Three Main National Causes," of maintaining the union of the country, the solidarity of its people, and its sovereignty, he said.
The military government, or Tatmadaw, was currently implementing multiparty democracy in a manner consisent with current laws, he said.
Furthermore, there were several examples of countries which had been overly zealous in their reforms and paid the price, the general added.
"The army chief's comments are a clear signal that the military will not support any effort to suspend or amend the article," Yangon-based political analyst and commentator Sithu Aung Myint told dpa by phone.
"That is why I think hope for Suu Kyi's presidency is over, at least for now."
Suu Kyi might be considering the position of foreign minister instead, the Myanmar Times reported this week, citing unnamed source closed to the opposition leader.
This would keep her close to the president and also allow her to participate in meetings of the 11-member National Defence and Security Council, which is controlled by the military, the report said.
There have been no signs in parliament that the NLD is preparing a move to suspend article 59 (f) in time for the presidential nominations, due March 17.
"It is likely impossible to submit such a proposal to parliament within the time frame," one NLD senior member who asked not to be named told dpa on Sunday.
"I think the party is going to postpone the plan," he said.
But the NLD would never completely drop its ambition to amend or suspend the articles to clear the path for Daw Suu's presidency at some point in the future, he said, using an honorific reference.
"Daw Suu will become president sooner or later," he said.