Russia's grain harvest may be lower in 2016 than in the previous year, but will still provide a large exportable surplus for the next marketing year, which starts on July 1, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said on Thursday. SovEcon, a leading Moscow-based consultancy, has cut its forecast for Russia's 2016 grain crop to 95-100 million tonnes from previously expected 100-105 million tonnes.
It also downgraded its forecast for the country's wheat crop to 57-58 million tonnes from previously expected 59-62 million tonnes, Andrey Sizov, the head of SovEcon, told a conference in Moscow. In 2015, Russia harvested 105 million tonnes of grains, including 62 million tonnes of wheat. "The decline from the previous year may happen if eastern regions sow less spring wheat than a year ago," Sizov said.
"However, the total crop will still be large - almost 100 million tonnes after more than 100 million tonnes in the previous two years," he added. "Even if the crop falls year-on-year, the balance of (supply and demand) and exportable surplus will still be good." If this scenario is realised, Russia will be able to remain the second largest global wheat exporter in 2016/17 marketing year, he added. Russia is expected to become the second largest global wheat exporter after the European Union for the first time in the current marketing year.
SovEcon's scenario is based on weather forecasts which see a cold April and May in Russia's eastern regions, which may have prompted farmers to cut their spring grains sowing area. Russia exports its wheat mainly from the southern region and regions around Volga river, while crop in its eastern regions is usually important for domestic consumers.