US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as oil and stock prices jumped on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia had agreed to freeze crude output, reducing demand for safe-haven debt. Global oil prices hit five-month highs after Russia's Interfax news agency quoted a diplomatic source in Doha saying the two nations had reached consensus on an oil output freeze ahead of a producers' meeting on April 17.
Treasuries have been swayed by weakness in oil and stock markets in recent months as investors look for signs that the sharp price declines may be nearing an end. "We're hyperfocused on the oil market right now in Treasuries ... what happens in stocks and oil is going to be pretty instrumental," said Ian Lyngen, a senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital in Stamford, Connecticut.
Benchmark 10-year notes dropped 17/32 in price to yield 1.78, up from 1.72 percent on Monday. Higher yields may have helped demand for the Treasury's $24 billion sale of three-year notes on Tuesday. Fund managers, foreign central banks and other indirect bidders purchased 55.96 percent of the latest three-year note issue, their biggest share since January and the second largest since December 2009. "That suggests to us that there was strong non-dealer participation but potentially overseas demand as well," Lyngen said.
The US government will sell $20 billion in a 10-year note reopening on Wednesday and $12 billion in a 30-year bond reopening on Thursday. Investors also will be watching the release of retail sales data for March on Wednesday for any new indications of the strength of the US economy in the first quarter. A divergence between economic growth forecasts of Federal Reserve officials and those of economists and investors who see relatively slower growth has increased market volatility in recent months.