The European Union's wheat crop is developing well after a mild winter and Europe is on course for a good harvest but below last year's record, experts said on Wednesday. "Poland is the main problem area but otherwise the picture is broadly looking good," a German analyst said. "With normal spring and summer weather the EU will have an excellent crop, a bit under the huge harvest last year, keeping export supplies very large," said the analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity as he is not allowed to talk to the media.
Wheat in top EU producer France is in good shape, with rain in recent weeks aiding crops after favourable autumn and winter weather. "For the moment prospects are favourable, with good crop growth and decent absorption of fertiliser," said Jean-Charles Deswarte of crop institute Arvalis. Relatively cool temperatures in March had curbed the fast growth of wheat earlier in the season, leaving wheat about a week ahead of its usual pace compared with a three-week advance as of late February, he said.
Favourable sowing and growth conditions boosted the area sown with soft wheat in France to an 80-year high of around 5.2 million hectares. Strategie Grains forecasts French crop of 39.0 million tonnes and ODA Groupe 38.5 million tonnes, just down from the 2015 record of around 41 million tonnes. In the second-largest producer, Germany, the crop is likely to drop 1.7 percent from last year's bumper harvest to 26.10 million tonnes, above the average between 2010 and 2015 of about 25 million, Germany's farm co-operatives association estimates.
In third-largest producer Britain, winter wheat is developing at a normal pace, ADAS analyst Susan Twining said. "Wheat was marginally ahead of normal but the cold spell in March checked development," she said. "There is more damage from water logging over the winter this year but generally it is in quite small patches and shouldn't have a major impact overall." The wheat area in England and Wales is estimated at 1.66 million hectares from 1.69 million last year.
The fourth-largest producer, Poland, suffered widespread frost damage in early 2016. "We believe that about 7-8 percent of winter wheat will have to be replanted in the spring," said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska. "Most of the lost winter wheat acreage will be replanted with spring wheat." Recent warm and rainy weather was more crop-friendly. He forecast Poland's wheat crop at about 11.2 million tonnes, down 4 percent from 2015.