African currencies week ahead: weaker copper price dents Zambia's kwacha, Nigeria's naira under pressure

01 May, 2016

Zambia's kwacha will remain on the ropes next week as dollar buying drains greenback supplies, while Nigeria's naira would also start on the backfoot as government stalls over the implementation of this year's budget.
At 1300 GMT on Thursday, the kwacha was trading at 9.6000 per dollar, down from a close of 9.3500 a week ago. "Dollar demand has risen ahead of supply. Unless we see exporters selling dollars, the kwacha will remain under pressure," one commercial bank trader said.
Nigeria's parliament and President Muhammadu Buhari are yet to reach agreement on the 2016 budget, stalling the implementation of crucial fiscal plans.
The naira was broadly flat at 321 to the dollar on the parallel market on Thursday, against 322 a dollar last week, and held steady around the official peg of 197 at interbank market.
Traders said the budget crisis in Africa's biggest economy was taking its toll on economic activities and causing businesses to defer investment decisions.
At 1100 GMT the cedi stood at 3.8000 to the dollar on compared to 3.8250-3.8330 to the dollar by 1100 GMT a week ago. "Demand for the greenback is not expected to be particularly stronger in the week ahead than in previous weeks, and as such the pair is expected to remain flat in the face of adequate dollar supply," said Biggles Amponsah of Accra-based Dortis Research.
At 0915 GMT, banks quoted the shilling at 101.05/15 to the dollar, versus last Thursday's close of 101.15/25.
"The bias for the Kenyan shilling will be on the strengthening side, the main driver being the easing of end month demand," a senior trader at one commercial bank said. TANZANIA: The shilling is seen trading in a tight band, helped by healthy inflows.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,185/2,195 to the dollar on Thursday, stronger than 2,195/2,205 a week ago. "The shilling is expected to remain stable for the time being due to end-of-month inflows," said currency trader at CRDB Bank Moses Kawiche.
At 0936 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,335/3,345, weaker than last Thursday's close of 3,305/3,315. "Demand is going off and also liquidity will thin out a little bit after the mop up," said a trader at a leading commercial bank.
"The (shilling's) tone will be appreciation," he said after the central bank removed 322 billion shillings ($98 million) worth of liquidity from the interbank via a 7-day repo.

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