Lingering dry weather in Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions in defiance of the start of the rainy season in early April has led exporters to lower production forecasts for the March-to-April mid-crop harvest in the world's top grower. Ivory Coast harvested a record crop of about 1.8 million tonnes of beans in the 2014/15 season, buoyed in part by a larger than average mid-crop of 514,000 tonnes.
Conditions are drier this year and the government is forecasting a crop of 1.6 million tonnes for the season. Port arrivals reached 1,216,751 tonnes at the end of the main crop, according to data from the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC). There had been general consensus at the start of the year among exporters that mid-crop production would reach about 500,000 tonnes. However, five sector players, including exporters and pod counters, told Reuters they were lowering their forecast to between 330,000 and 360,000 tonnes.
Singapore-based Olam International pegged the Ivorian mid-crop at 450,000 tonnes in late February. "We lowered our forecast of 450,000 from January to 350,000 tonnes due to the weather situation," said the director of an Abidjan-based international exporter, who asked not to be named. West African cocoa growers were hit hard by prolonged, harsh Harmattan winds from late October.
"The latest setting from April worries us, because we have a low survival rate of flowers and cherelles (small pods) 30 to 40 percent of the March setting was lost in April alone," another exporter said. He estimated mid-crop production would reach 330,000 tonnes. "We expected the rain, which arrived late in March, to continue in April and May, but instead the dry weather has returned," he added.
Some exporters are worried that the current unfavourable growing conditions could continue into June or even have a negative impact on the development of the 2016/17 main crop. "If we don't have good, regular rains in the next six weeks, we could have a worrying situation on our hands," said one pod counter, who projected a mid-crop of 360,000 tonnes of cocoa. "But for the moment we are still holding out hope that the rains return."