No annual budget - federal, provincial or even local - based on a population census as outdated as the one that we have been using since 2003, the year the 1998 census had expired - can be regarded as a balance-sheet of income and expenditure worth the bother of a serious debate either inside the elected houses or outside. At best the successive annual budgets passed since by elected houses or non-elected governments were no more than fictional balance-sheets and therefore they naturally ended up adding to the national woes rather than alleviating them. Add to the fiction the fact that currently the black economy is almost more than double the white in size and you further end up looking at a fantasy and not at a realistic account of what is proposed to be earned over the next 12 months and what heads would be allocated what amount.
No matter how you try to manage your economy at the official level there is no way you can come up with a policy that is equitable and ensured equity across the board if you don't know how many mouths you need to feed in the coming 12 months, how many bodies need to be clothed and how many families need to be provided with shelter. And it becomes even more difficult, nay almost impossible, if you don't have a documented economy informing you precisely how many persons are earning taxable incomes and how many of them are paying their dues and how many are evading and avoiding their national financial obligations.
A state which does not fulfil its very basic obligations towards its citizens such as provision of affordable food, potable water, and electricity, affordable education, affordable health cover, affordable transport, travel and telecommunication facilities, affordable housing, affordable justice, adequate protection of their lives and property, even affordable bank loan facilities can hardly qualify to be called a legitimate state demanding loyalty from all of its citizens. Such states are called failed states because their citizens don't feel a sense of belonging to them and refuse to hand over to the agencies of these states some of their individual rights for the collective good of the entire citizenry of the state.
Like in the past this year as well the budget makers are groping in the dark. And like in the past years they are likely to come up with an over-ambitious size of the budget, allocating overly impressive amounts for development, simply to play to the gallery while announcing the budget. And since they do not know what resources they would be able to mobilise over the next year to fund their ambitious budgetary allocations, they would, as has been the rule, use the rule of the thumb and come up with an equally ambitious amount under this head of income.
A country without adequate capital of its own, without enough of its own energy and lacking in modern technological know-how can hardly be expected to be able to make the two ends meet without generous dole - from multilateral and bilateral sources. But most of this dole comes with strings attached which are normally designed to keep the dole recipient in a perpetual state of bondage of the donors. One can escape this bondage, if one wants to, first by negotiating the right kind of dole and then investing it in productive avenues rather than spending it on non-productive heads like buying weapon systems and importing consumer goods. Unfortunately, Pakistan has been doing exactly what it should not have been doing all these years. The billions that we have spent on buying arms did not improve our sense of security but instead kept our economy trapped eternally. In fact today we are much more insecure than we were at the time of our independence--the main reason being, our continuous neglect of our own people. Had we invested most of what we had earned and received by way of dole over all these years on our own people in educating them, training them in various productive trades and sciences and improving their intellectual prowess, then perhaps we would have been much better off today both economically as well as security-wise.
The country's economy is marred by acute shortages of capital, energy, water, skilled and educated manpower, healthcare facilities. On the other hand, the challenge of country's burgeoning population continues to render these shortages even more acute, making it impossible for Pakistan's economy to take off.
So, the immediate challenge facing the government is to hold the much delayed census at the earliest. This will enable the government to calculate with a degree of accuracy the population growth rate (which currently is officially estimated at around 2.1 per cent) and the fertility rate (officially estimated to be 4.1 births per woman) both of which are currently lagging behind the data for the same in all the South Asian countries except Afghanistan.
Indeed, the possibility of under-estimation of both the official population growth and fertility rates cannot be ruled out in view of the presumed under-estimation of the country's population by the government. That is perhaps why it is becoming increasingly difficult for Pakistan to make the most of its available economic resources. As a consequence the very fabric of our society is facing a serious threat with the writ of the state seemingly vanishing rapidly.
With dwindling water resources, a yawning energy deficit, and an expanding population with higher expectations - and an acute security problem to boot - Pakistan needs a fresh census to give planners the essential tools for future projections. Without the census data, they would be operating in a vacuum.
Consider the important issues that are built around the availability of census data: the NFC award, delimitation of electoral constituencies, judicious representation in parliament, local bodies' polls, targeted subsidies, and all other policy matters that critically rely on population data.
Like-wise, the benefits of population planning touch all levels - individual, family, and community, national and even global. It enhances the quality of life by reducing infant mortality, improving maternal health and alleviating pressures on governments to meet social and economic needs. In addition, access to family planning can be seen as a human right and as a means to enlarge women's life options.
The Population Council of Pakistan has estimated that only 35.4% of women in the country are currently practising contraception and that more than 20 per cent of married women want to practise contraception for birth spacing but they are unable to do so. This is mainly because of wide-spread illiteracy, cultural taboos and inaccessibility to high quality family planning/birth spacing services. Also, there appears to be some kind of aversion on the part of the successive governments - particularly since General Zia's days - towards the matter of population planning.
This needs to be reversed with the current government and its successors making a commitment to treat this matter as number one priority of the nation, following up with setting in place a strong family planning programme and increasing contraceptive prevalence rates. Due consideration should also be given to the sensible suggestion that the population planning department should be merged with the health ministry. But the government alone would not be able to do the needful with any degree of success. The civil society, the private sector and the media, especially the broadcast media also need to join in the effort whole heartedly.