LEAD Pakistan, a think tank with focus on policy relevant research, has called for confidence building measures (CBMs) between Pakistan and India for resolving disputes like water issues. "Trust building measures can only work when both parties converge on adding value to water through dialogue," adds LEAD in its Policy Brief on Pak-India cooperation for harnessing benefits of trans-boundary water in the Indus basin.
In key message, Policy Brief reads, "Climate change has emerged as a menace". The Indus basin ranks in the top ten of the world's most vulnerable basins, with inflows predicted to fall by 27% by 2050. "Trans-boundary water conflicts can be averted, and benefits and efficiency maximised, through trust building, cooperation and adoption of benefit sharing approach," it suggests.
The impacts of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere are obvious, from 21 percent de-glaciations of 466 glaciers in the three major basins, since 1962, which is supported by data of early snowmelt and resulting increased flows during winters. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its third assessment report, has reported that there will be an increase in the South Asian monsoon by 8-24 percent. Monsoons will be concentrated in smaller time span. This monsoon pattern coupled with increased glacial and snow melt has increased the probability of high floods.
Further, water availability in the non-monsoon periods is projected to be scarce than before. Surface water is coming under threat because of burgeoning population and flow regime variability due to climate changes. Decreasing per capita water availability and increasing demand have exacerbated the problem, resulting in competing claims by upper riparian India and lower riparian Pakistan, and inter-provincial conflicts.
The Policy Brief recommended formation of an Indus commission and joint bodies to perform information, co-ordination and advisory roles, allocate sufficient research funds and involve all stakeholders in research process, data sharing and knowledge management. Joint projects shall be implemented to fill in the policy, knowledge and implementation gaps, by involving government and nongovernmental organisations, it added.