Brexit has remained the major news item since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union (EU) on 23 June posing not only an existential threat to the union itself (England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales) but also to the EU with fears that the contagion - demand for a referendum on whether to remain in the EU - may spread to other countries.
Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister, went off to Brussels in an attempt to keep Scotland in the EU after 62 percent of eligible voters in Scotland voted in favour of remaining in the EU. Spanish Prime Minister and French President dashed her hopes by maintaining that if the UK leaves, Scotland leaves, prompting Sturgeon to state "I don't want to underestimate the challenges that lie ahead." This may strengthen her resolve to break away from the union with the UK though two million Scots voted in favour of remaining with the UK less than 2 years ago while 1.5 million Scots voted to remain in the UK. Whether these two referendum results are incompatible post Brexit vote remains to be seen. Be that as it may, approval from Westminster is required for another referendum.
Northern Ireland too voted to remain in the EU with 56 percent votes in favour and 44 percent against but First Minister Arlene Foster expressed a different opinion to Sturgeon's: "This is a UK-wide decision and every vote is equal within the UK. I am proud of the fact that this decision was taken by the people." The Prime Minister from the independent Republic of Ireland while speaking to David Cameron post Brexit stated that "there will be no immediate change to the free flow of people, goods and services between our islands." The Irish government had actively encouraged citizens of Northern Ireland to vote to remain in the EU.
In Wales the nationalist Plaid Cymru party, which does not govern Wales, has stated that it will intensify efforts to gain independence from the UK.
Prime Minister David Cameron, showing his impeccable democratic credentials, resigned, effectivity in three months time, the day after the referendum and explained that "the British people have made the very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction...I do not think it would be right for me to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination." This triggered a contest within the conservative party with the frontrunner Theresa May and a far second Andrea Leadsom emerging as the two remaining contenders for the post of Prime Minister with the final ballot scheduled to be held in September. Leader of United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) Nigel Farage has also stepped down while stating that he has achieved his objective of de-linking the UK from Europe. And several members of Labour leader Corbyn's shadow cabinet have resigned for reportedly his failure to not effectively campaign for the remain campaign and an expected leadership challenge against him on 26 June was postponed as supporters of the leader claimed 60,000 new members joined the party to head off a plot to remove him.
The question is what motivated the UK public to vote in favour of Leave and Remain. Lord Ashcroft undertook a post Brexit poll and came up with the following results for the Leave campaign: 49% of voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was "the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK" or an issue of sovereignty. Contrary to popular perception only one third (33%) cited their reason was that leaving "offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders." Just over one in eight (13%) said remaining would mean having no choice "about how the EU expanded its membership or its powers in the years ahead." And a little over one in twenty (6%) said their main reason was that "when it comes to trade and the economy, the UK would benefit more from being outside the EU than from being part of it."
For remain voters, the single most important reason for their decision as per Lord Ashcroft's survey was that "the risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices (43%). Just over three in ten (31%) reasoned that remaining would mean the UK having "the best of both worlds", or access to the EU single market without Schengen or the euro. Just under one in five (17%) said their main reason was that the UK would "become more isolated from its friends and neighbours", and fewer than one in ten (9%) said it was "a strong attachment to the EU and its shared history, culture and traditions."
Does Brexit pose an existential threat to other EU member states? European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) carried out a comprehensive survey of 45 right-wing and far left insurgent parties in 28 EU countries ranging from France's Communist Party and Germany's leftist Die Linke, through to the far-right and anti-immigrant Golden Dawn in Greece, Lega Nord in Italy and Jobbik in Hungary. All but three of these parties on the very fringes of left and right political ideologies hold seats in their national and/or European parliament and have called for referenda on whether to leave the EU. ECFR concluded that in spite of differences between them these parties share views on a range of foreign policy including skepticism of the EU, opposition to intervention abroad particularly in the Middle East, not enthusiastic about relations with the US, and refugee relocation quotas. Their success so far is limited to capturing the media and challenging the establishment rather than working within it.
While there is an obvious disconnect between UK politicians and their Pakistani counterparts, not least because of the system in which the two operate, yet the results of the Leave and Remain survey results may have some relevance to our politics. Clearly our narrative in politics appears to have changed with the end of the Musharraf dictatorship. The focus is on transparency and accountability of public representatives - the natural outcome of not only uninterrupted civilian rule for the past eight years but also a vibrant media, a genie which neither a military dictator nor politicians have been able to put back in the bottle.
The accumulation of ill gotten wealth by politicians, especially after the revelations in the unchallengeable Panama papers, was deftly deflected by arguing that corruption is endemic in all areas of activity, including in all three pillars of state namely the executive, the judiciary and the legislature (the last kept deliberately weak in both dictatorships and civilian rule) as well as the traditional power player, the establishment. However the focus of public attention post Panama papers has been on those who bank their wealth abroad thereby contributing nothing to the country's appallingly low growth rate and yet seek to lead this country. The ongoing narrative is that such leaders compromise our very sovereignty as they are disabled from negotiating with countries where they hold their assets or officially borrow from those foreign banks where they bank their personal wealth.
Can any lessons be learned by our politicians from the UK voting patterns on Brexit? The often stated strategy of the PML-N leadership with respect to elections 2018 is to end load shedding as well as undertake massive road building - factors that would ensure an electoral victory. To put it facetiously, this approach appears to rely on the people voting for a status quo and may be compared to the 43 percent of Britons who voted for Remain on the grounds that the risks associated with leaving the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices. In this context it is relevant to note that 43 percent out of the 48 percent of Britons who voted to Remain lost the vote.
The PTI comes closest to the 49 percent of those who voted for Brexit on the basis that sovereignty is an issue. Or in other words constantly attacking the PML-N for wealth stashed abroad by many of its leaders including the party head and the incumbent Prime Minister. PPP at present is also engaged in a similar strategy though it is unclear whether Asif Ali Zardari would be able to go the entire way.
Next week's article would look at the medium- to long-term implications of Brexit on its economy as well as the world economy.