Solid US jobs data lifts Asia emerging FX

12 Jul, 2016

Most emerging Asian currencies rallied on Monday as strong US jobs data improved risk sentiment while the Federal Reserve is seen remaining hesitant to raise interest rates.
However, China's yuan eased ahead of key economic indicators such as July trade on Wednesday and second-quarter economic growth on Friday. The central bank was suspected of intervening to support the renminbi, traders said.
The South Korean won hit a one-week high as foreign investors bought local stocks and bonds. The Malaysian ringgit also touched its strongest in more than two weeks on bond inflows. Central banks of both countries have policy meetings this week.
Indonesia's rupiah rose to a near three-month high after a week-long holiday as local shares and bonds advanced.
Asian stocks hit a four-week peak after data on Friday showed that US employers added 287,000 jobs last month, far more than expected. But the data failed to revive expectations of an imminent US interest rate increase as May nonfarm payrolls were revised down to 11,000 from 38,000.
"With these numbers, it is hard to prospect a near-term Fed hike," said Jeong My-young, Samsung Futures research head in Seoul. "Liquidity injection by developed countries helps a strong rebound in emerging stocks and currencies. Asia is one of the beneficiaries."
"Still, Asian currencies are unlikely to be a top-pick among emerging assets now as China's economic recovery is not that strong," Jeong said.
The won rose 1.4 percent to 1,145.3 per dollar, its strongest since July 4.Foreign investors were on track to be net buyers of South Korean stocks for a third straight session, the Korea Exchange data showed.
South Korea's bonds also drew foreign investors ahead of a central bank policy meeting on Thursday amid some expectations of a further rate cut later this year.
"The KRW rate and bond markets are likely to remain bullish, with the curve flat on demand for long tenor bonds from real money accounts, regardless of the BOK decision on Thursday," analysts for Societe Generale said in a note, referring to the Bank of Korea.
Caution grew over possible intervention by the foreign exchange authorities to stem the won's strength, but they had yet not been spotted in the currency market, traders said.
The won also has a chart resistance level at 1,144.2, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its depreciation from April to June, analysts said.
The ringgit jumped 1.4 percent to 3.9780 per dollar, its strongest since June 24.
The Malaysian currency also advanced in non-deliverable forwards markets on demand from foreign funds including long-term accounts.
Most government bond prices rose, with the five-year yield at as low as 3.243 percent, the lowest since June 2013.
That came ahead of a Malaysian central bank meeting on Wednesday to decide its overnight policy rate.
The rupiah rose 0.3 percent to 13,095 per dollar, its strongest since April 13.
In the first trading after last week's holidays, Jakarta stocks jumped more than 2 percent after foreigners continued to be buyers. Most government bond prices also advanced. The official Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, which the central bank introduced in 2013 to manage exchange rate fluctuations, was fixed at a near three-month high of 13,112.
Last week, Indonesian financial markets were closed to celebrate the end of the Muslim fasting month.

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