France's soft wheat exports outside the EU could drop by 60 percent this season as it faces the worst yields in 30 years and erratic grain quality after bad weather hit crops, consultancy Agritel said. The steep fall in exports may allow Germany to overtake France as the EU's top wheat exporter in 2016/17, while other exporters from Russia to the United States that are seeing bumper crops should also benefit from limited French supplies, Agritel said on Tuesday.
French soft wheat exports outside the European Union are expected to fall to 5.1 million tonnes in 2016/17, from 12.8 million last season. That would be below German exports, projected at 6.65 million despite rain risks in Germany, it said.
"France is probably going to lose this season its place as the EU's biggest wheat exporter," Michel Portier, head of Agritel, told reporters.
France's export prospects would be limited by both a dramatic drop in harvest output, which Agritel sees falling 30 percent from last year's record to 28.68 million tonnes, and low specific weights, a common measure of wheat quality.
Forecasters have in the past month slashed their outlook for the wheat crop as harvesting has shown severe effects from heavy rain, limited sunshine and plant disease during spring.
Agritel estimated the average French soft wheat yield at its lowest since 1983 at 5.48 tonnes per hectare, below a farm ministry estimate on Friday that pegged the yield at 5.57 tonnes a hectare, already the lowest level since 1986.
The share of milling-grade wheat was expected to drop below 40 percent from 70 percent more typically in France, Pierre Begoc, Agritel's international director, told the Thomson Reuters online Global Ags Forum.
Lost trade in wheat and other weather-affected crops, a major export driver for France, could have a negative impact of 3 billion euros ($3.3 bln) on the country's trade balance, according to Agritel. Fellow consultancy ODA estimates a similar impact. The poor harvest and low market prices, linked to large global supplies, could also cause wheat farmers to lose 500-600 euros a hectare on this year's crop, Agritel said.
The French government has promised temporary financial relief for grain growers, after previously focusing its efforts on livestock farmers.
The overall crop picture could change, however. There was a lot of wheat still to harvest in the far north and quality was looking better in export zones and could also be improved by cleaning and sorting grain, Begoc said.