While our politicians protect their personal interests they show zero concern for even limiting the economy's slowdown, let alone reversing it, as portrayed by the ongoing slide in exports, inward remittances, and exchange reserves bulk of which are borrowed and hence must be repaid on time to avoid defaults that could exacerbate this all round slide.
The latest development that may worsen this mess is Donald Trump's elevation to the US presidency, and his pledge to install a "protectionist trade regime" and impose "immigration controls" because the US accounts for 17 percent of Pakistan's annual exports and 13 percent of its inward remittances. Pakistan could become one of the victims of these policy changes.
The $1 billion annual inflow representing reimbursement of expenses of the coalition forces in Afghanistan is also uncertain because US war veteran induced Trump to condemn US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and Trump may hasten the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, and an India-dominated Afghanistan could pose bigger security threats to Pakistan.
A concerted anti-Trump media campaign, think-tanks faulting of Trump's pledges (and now predicting his impeachment), and economists' negative forecasts couldn't prevent his victory. Millions of jobless Americans voted for him despite his questionable reputation because, instead of sustaining the economic superiority the US gained as the victor of the WW-II, regimes following J. F. Kennedy's removal from the scene kept launching invasions that failed.
Victory in the WW-II injected power-intoxication in the US establishment- an imperialistic mindset portrayed by the belief that what the US does was right, no matter what the rest of the world said - and emergence of the 'military-industrial complex' as predicted by President Eisenhower, and later, aptly described by Allan Bloom in his book 'The Closing of the American Mind'.
Today, with its external debt exceeding $21 trillion, the US is the world's most indebted country because it was steadily de-industrialised; hundreds of industrial units were dis-assembled and sold to foreign groups or shifted to South American and Asian countries to maximise the benefits of cheap labour there, with scant concern for rising unemployment in the US.
That's why, in his election campaign Trump promised to reduce unemployment via a protectionist trade regime and immigration controls. But will he succeed in implementing these strategies is uncertain because, after removing President Kennedy from the scene, Pentagon began' guiding' all the White House residents; Trump may not prove an exception thereto.
That said, retaining its foothold in export markets during the current global recession demanded that Pakistan doubled its efforts to sustain the competitiveness of its export sector. Instead, the PML-N regime wasted resources on marginally beneficial infrastructure projects, and after disclosure of massive corruption therein, initially it denied it and then blocked accountability there for.
Textile sector with the largest share in exports - already hard-pressed by the global recession - wasn't provided the needed support for enhancing its competitiveness in this tough environment. Besides power load-shedding, this sector was burdened with additional taxes, and on top thereof, payment of its tax and duty refund claims remain a dream to-date.
Rising consumer inflation (denied by the government) has led to over 2 percent decline in domestic savings, which necessitates higher FDI inflows to sustain investment and economic growth in Pakistan having one of the highest rates of population growth. But the security threats, primarily the product of Indian intervention via Afghanistan, have drastically slowed FDI inflows.
Trump's promise to scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership and other trade agreements may induce US investors (owning significant portions of bluechip stocks in Pakistani companies) to disinvest their holdings and thus cause additional outflow of exchange reserves when Pakistan's continuously rising trade deficit is consuming these reserves.
The daily encounters with terrorists and discovery of hidden caches of arms damage investor confidence. But while these events reflect the commitment of the security forces to counter this threat, bailing out of characters accused of corruption and backing extortionist groups in Sindh and Punjab continues to hamper the revival of investor confidence.
Doesn't this reflect a self-serving mindset of the federal and provincial governments? Aren't their priorities country-damaging? The latest 'Pakistan Development Update' of the World Bank blames political instability, extortion, corruption, infrastructure gaps, and power outages, for hampering business environment in Karachi, and this city - Pakistan's economic hub - is now one of the bottom 10 cities in the 2015 Global Live-ability Index.
Last week the Prime Minister (PM) "ordered" cutting power load-shedding to half its current level. If an "order" of the PM could cut this misery by half, why didn't he do so earlier? Didn't he know that this critical deficit was crippling the country's business and industry? Didn't he know that power load-shedding was the biggest contributor to slide in exports?
And will this 'order' of the PM really trigger the miracle he wants? After its latest evaluation of the power generation plants and transmission systems, Nepra has concluded that limiting load-shedding is impossible because extending the due dates of commissioning of power projects- case with every one of them - defies fulfilling the PM's promise of eliminating load-shedding by 2018.
Courtesy the PPP and PML-N regimes in power since 2008 Pakistan acquired the highest-ever external debt, which is being repaid by borrowing afresh to avoid default; borrowing more and pocketing the bulk thereof instead of upping exports poses a dire threat. The US exercises great influence on global lending agencies - the IMF, the World Bank, and the ADB - all lenders to Pakistan. That under pressure from a US president like Trump these agencies may not 'allow' Pakistan to default, didn't bother the PPP or the PML-N.
Unbothered about this outcome, after achieving their self-serving objectives by compromising Pakistan's future, ie, by burdening it with ever-higher debt, politicians and powerful bureaucrats coolly exit Pakistan, as did Dr Ishrat-ul-Ebad's within hours of (being sacked or?) completing his 14-year term as the Governor of Sindh. Yet our politicians demand 'admiration' for their brand of democracy.
It is time to quickly visualise the impending threats and prepare to confront them by side-lining political differences, jointly focusing on eliminating corruption in state offices, suspending outlay on controversial projects, hastening the rehabilitation of the power sector, and imposing strict austerity measures to check resource waste - efforts that require tough, unbiased accountability of the bureaucracy from top to bottom.
But the embattled PML-N regime (courtesy Panama Leaks) isn't focused on this urgently needed effort. Instead, its ministers are focused on blocking the inquest into Panama Leaks and, denying the unforgivable exposure of national security issues to shield the cronies involved therein. None is bothered about where the country is headed; instead, concentration is on their self-serving priorities.