African currencies week ahead: Kenyan, Ugandan shillings seen easing, Zambia's kwacha to firm

20 Nov, 2016

The Kenyan and Ugandan shillings are seen weakening in the week to next Thursday, while Zambia's kwacha is seen strengthening, traders said.
KENYA: The Kenyan shilling could weaken due to sustained corporate demand outweighing dollar inflows, traders said.
At 0750 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 101.80/102.00 to the dollar, compared with 101.60/70 at last Thursday's close.
"Corporate demand appears not to have reduced," said a trader from a commercial bank.
UGANDA: The Ugandan shilling is seen weakening, hit by dollar demand from offshore investors cutting positions in local government debt.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,590/3,600, weaker than last Thursday's close of 3,525/3,535.
"We've been seeing a lot of offshore people who are selling their local debt holdings exerting demand ... this pressure will continue to weigh on the local unit," said Faisal Bukenya, head of market making at Barclays Bank Uganda.
TANZANIA: The Tanzanian shilling is expected to trade in a tight range in the days ahead, helped by subdued demand for dollars.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,175/2,185 to the dollar on Thursday, barely moved from 2,174/2,184 a week ago.
"The shilling will likely trade at the same levels next week. The outlook is that of continued stability in the local currency due to a slowdown in demand for dollars in the market," said a trader at a commercial bank in Dar es Salaam.
NIGERIA: The naira is expected to trade in a tight range in the official and parallel markets as Africa's biggest economy struggles to curb speculation on the local currency and reduce pressure on its dwindling dollar stocks.
The naira was quoted at 465 to the dollar on the parallel market on Thursday against 460 per dollar last week, while commercial lenders quoted the local currency at 314.80 to the dollar in the official interbank window.
"The central bank has intensified its effort to manage the exchange rate at the present level by influencing how the scarce dollar is sold at the parallel market, while selling dollar daily at the interbank market to keep the naira from falling further," a trader at one commercial bank said.
GHANA: Ghana's cedi could weaken marginally on growing seasonal dollar demand by businesses settling their end of year import bills.
The local currency, which has been fairly stable this year, traded weaker this week, touching 4.0400 to the dollar by 1100 GMT on Thursday compared with 3.9900 a week ago.
"Demand for the greenback is expected to remain firm amidst lower supply and this could lead importers to buy-and-hold forex for future use," said analyst Joseph Biggles Amponsah of Accra-based Dortis Research.
ZAMBIA: The kwacha is expected to firm, supported by dollar conversions by companies preparing to pay salaries and other month-end costs as well as offshore players taking part in a bond auction on November 18.
Commercial banks quoted the kwacha at 9.9150 per dollar from 9.8400 a week ago. "We expect the kwacha to be firmer because corporates will be selling dollars to meet month-end obligations. Offshore players are also in the market selling dollars," Kabwe Mwaba, Standard Chartered Bank's local head of financial markets and asset and liability management said.

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