Equities and currencies rebound as bonds tread water

12 Oct, 2018

Warsaw's bluechip index led, rising over one percent after Thursday's fall to a 3-month low.

Oil group PKN Orlen was the biggest gainer having been the major loser in Thursday's rout.

The region's currencies firmed, with Poland also leading as the zloty rose 0.2 percent to 4.3 versus the euro, a psychologically important level for markets.

Central European currencies have held firm despite a drop in equities and government bonds over the past few weeks, driven by an increase in US bond yields, concern over Italy's debt and worry over equity valuations worldwide.

The region's two most liquid currencies, the zloty and the forint have been rangebound around key levels versus the euro since early September: the zloty near 4.3 and the forint around 325.

Poland's disciplined budget and healthy economic growth should earn it a credit rating upgrade from Standard & Poor's late on Friday, Raiffeisen analyst Gintaras Shlizhyus said.

But the agency may still keep the rating at BBB+ due to Warsaw's tensions with the European Commission over the rule of law, he said in a note. Moody's may upgrade the Czech Republic on Friday, Shlizhyus said.

Santander analysts said in a note that "an upgrade from S&P (for Poland) is not very likely" due to politics.

"Moreover, rising worries about global slowdown and risk factors (hard Brexit) do not create favourable environment for upgrades," they said.

Poland's 10-year government bond yield dropped 1 basis point to 3.25 percent, having hit 5-month highs above 3.3 percent this week.

The past two weeks' surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield had caused bond selling in Central Europe, with Hungary's long-term bonds worst hit, before the past two days' rebound.

The 10-year Hungarian paper was quoted at around 3.87 percent, the average yield set at Thursday's auctions, with the tenders robustly bid after the recent yield rise.

The 10-year yield held near the 3-year highs reached above 3.9 percent on Wednesday.

Hungarian bonds underperformed in the sell-off because Hungary's central bank has the lowest short-term interest rates in the region, with 3-month bills sold at negative yields this month at their auctions.

"I do not expect the bank to change interest rates or say anything new (at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday)," one forint trader said.

Copyright Reuters, 2018
 

 

 

 

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