Australia on Tuesday trimmed its forecast for beef exports during the 2016/17 season by more than 3 percent as farmers rebuild herds after the strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years. Shipments from Australia, the world's No 4 exporter, during 2016/17 is forecast at 990,000 tonnes, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture, Resource Economics and Rural Sciences (ABARES) said, down from its September forecast of 1.025 million tonnes.
Should Australian beef exports fall below 1 million tonnes, it will be lowest annual exports since the 2011/12 season. Declines in one of the country's main rural exports will see Australia lose market share in key consumer markets China and Korea to Brazilian exporters, and strip Australia's government of a key revenue stream amid a slowing economy.
The export downgrade comes as recent wet weather across Australia's largest cattle rearing region refills dams and aids pasture regrowth - almost wilted earlier this year by the strongest El Nino in nearly 20 years. El Nino brings hot, dry conditions across Australia's east coast.
Since the end of 2016 El Nino in May much of the country's prime cattle producing region has seen nearly twice the average rainfall. With ample food and water, Australia's cattle farmers are rebuilding herds, ABARES said, The size of the national herd fell to at least a two-decade low earlier in the year. While Australia's cattle farmers are benefiting from the recent wet weather, it is unfavourable for milk production, ABARES said. The weather coupled with the impact of lower prices paid by suppliers for milk has seen ABARES lower its forecast for milk production in 2016/17 to 9 billion litres, down from its September forecast of 9.3 billion litres.