Dollar set for worst week since November on US policy uncertainty

15 Jan, 2017

The US dollar edged lower on Friday, putting in on track for its worst week since early November against a basket of currencies as traders grew uneasy about the scarcity of new information regarding US President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.16 percent at 101.190. The minor gains combined with losses on Wednesday and Thursday to lead to a roughly 1 percent drop for the week.
The index had gained earlier Friday, and the dollar had risen as much as 0.6 percent against the yen to a session high of 115.44 yen, after the Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.6 percent in December and November's sales were revised up to show a 0.2 percent rise.
The gains wore off, however, and the dollar was last down 0.11 percent against the yen at 114.58 yen. The dollar was set to drop 2 percent against the yen for the week to mark its worst weekly showing since late July 2016.
"We're having a pretty profound risk-off sentiment percolating through the currency markets," said Karl Schamotta, director of FX strategy at Cambridge Global Payments in Toronto. "There is just a paucity of information around (Trump's) deregulation, tax reform, and fiscal stimulus plans."
The dollar tumbled on Wednesday and Thursday, and hit five-week lows against the euro, yen and Swiss franc on Thursday, on disappointment that Trump did not address pro-growth economic policies at his first news conference since his Nov. 8 election victory.
The dollar index, which also hit a five-week low Thursday, had rallied 4 percent between the election and Jan. 11 on expectations that Trump's policies would boost inflation and encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Analysts said the dollar would likely trade within a range until Trump's policies became clearer. Trump is set to be sworn in as president on Jan. 20.
"Right now, (traders) are probably waiting for the inauguration, to what type of speech President-elect Trump presents," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market strategist at WorldWideMarkets in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.
The euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.0640 after touching a session low of $1.0597 after the US retail sales data. The euro was set to post its best week against the dollar since early November with a roughly 1 percent gain.

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