Treasuries outlook: US yields rise on steady data, stock gains

15 Jan, 2017

US Treasury yields rose Friday as data supporting the notion of a steady US economic expansion and rising Wall Street stock prices stoked selling in low-risk government bonds.
Friday's yield increase pared some of the week's fall tied to traders scaling back bond bets on potentially higher inflation and federal borrowing under the incoming Trump administration and a Republican-controlled Congress.
Some investors were disappointed Trump did not disclose details at his Wednesday news conference on his plans for tax cuts, looser regulation and more infrastructure spending, which sparked a massive bond market sell-off around the world following his presidential win on Nov. 8.
They now hope for more clues from top Republican lawmakers on possible measures to boost the economy.
"There is not a whole lot of conviction in rates until we hear more from Congress about what they are shooting for in terms of policies," said Gennadiy Goldberg, interest rates strategist with TD Securities in New York.
Friday's abrupt jump in yields from their initial lows came soon after US data on retail sales and producer prices in December, which was largely within analyst forecasts.
Analysts and traders blamed the market turnaround on computerized sell orders generated in response to buying when the data was released, pushing bonds to technical levels that triggered sell orders.
The rise in yields also stemmed from traders locking in recent gains ahead of the three-day US Martin Luther King Jr. weekend and bond dealers reselling their purchases from a soft $12 billion 30-year Treasury auction on Thursday.
"The market is flushing lower because there are a lot of bad longs out there," said Tom di Galoma, managing director at Seaport Global Holdings in New York.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up 3 basis points at 2.391 percent after it fell to 2.307 percent, its lowest in six weeks.
The 10-year yield fell for a fourth straight week, a decline not seen since late May to early July last year, when it fell for seven consecutive weeks, Reuters data showed.
University of Michigan data showed the US consumer inflation outlook improved in early January, underpinning Friday's rise in yields.
Treasury yields retreated as US stock prices pared their early gains and DBRS downgraded Italy's bond rating, rekindling some safe-haven bids for bonds.

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