Global arabica production could reach a record in 2016/17 but total coffee consumption is on track to exceed output for the third straight year, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said on Wednesday.
Global robusta was forecast to fall 6 percent as Brazil's crop remained hampered by drought, the ICO said in its monthly newsletter.
Total coffee production was forecast at 151.6 million 60-kg bags in 2016/17, the ICO said in its first forecast for the crop year, up just 0.1 percent from 151.4 million bags year-over-year.
This marked an upward revision to global coffee output for 2015/16, which was previously forecast at 148 million bags.
Global arabica coffee output was estimated at a record 93.5 million bags, up 4.4 percent from 89.6 million bags in the prior year, which was revised up from 85.8 million bags, ICO data showed.
Robusta output was pegged at 58.2 million bags, down 6 percent from 2015/16.
Demand was expected to outpace production by 3.5 million bags in 2016/17, the third straight global deficit, ICO data showed.
Higher-than-expected consumption figures for the European Union, United States and Russian Federation caused 2015/16 world consumption to be upwardly revised to 155.7 million bags, but the ICO cautioned that this could be due to increases in pipeline stocks that are not officially recorded, rather than actual consumption.