Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) data of November 2016 estimates 2,480 percent increase in sugar production as compared to November 2015, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
Sugar production in November 2015 was 8,148 metric tons and rose phenomenally to 210, 278 metric tons in November 2016.
Sources in PBS told Business Recorder that the increase in sugar production can be attributed to an early start of cane crushing season - instead of the usual end-November or December it started in November 2016 in Sindh as well as in Punjab. This data was taken from 78 sugar mills across the country, sources further revealed.
Pakistan Sugar Mills Association, when contacted to confirm the data, stated that the Association no longer compiles production data subsequent to the Competition Commission of Pakistan's investigations relating to data manipulation; and now rely entirely on data compiled by the provincial sugarcane commissioners and the federal government.
Government sources revealed that sugar production estimate for the current year is 5.4 million tons, carry over stocks are estimated at 0.996 million tons before the start of crushing season 2016-17 and there is availability of 0.871 million tons of exportable surplus after taking account of domestic consumption of 5.525 million tons for 13 months at 0.245 million tons per month.
"A massive increase of sugar production - 2,480 metric tons in November 2016 - has contributed to 0.7 percent increase in the growth of Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM), which is a major contributor to growth," stated a senior economist on condition of anonymity.
An official told Business Recorder that the weightage of sugar in calculating the LSM is not insignificant - at 8 percent - and LSM contribution to growth in industrial sector is estimated at 6 percent. He conceded that such a massive rise in sugar output would have a positive impact on the LSM growth rate lending credence to government claims of supporting policies that are pro business. The government has projected 5.5 percent GDP growth for the current fiscal year on the premise of 3.9 percent growth in agriculture sector, 6.4 percent in the industrial sector and 5.7 percent in services.