The outcome of the 2018 general elections in urban centres would be performance-based, like the outcome of 2013 elections which witnessed a change from traditional to non-traditional voting patterns in the urban centres.
Voting patterns have changed, especially in urban areas, where voters were not only exposed to independent private media, but also shared views on politicians, their politics and their wealth on various social media networks like Facebook and Twitter, indicated an anecdotal survey undertaken by Business Recorder.
Panamagate may have the same negative impact on voter support for PML-N in 2018 elections in major cities as did the Swiss case in 2013 elections, so stated a number of analysts.
According to the data analysed by Business Recorder, PPP with a total of 47 seats in National Assembly in 2008 suffered a serious setback in 2013 general elections. In 2008, PPP won a total of 53 seats from 22 cities - 37 seats in 15 cities of Punjab, 13 seats in four cities of Sindh, three seats in two cities of Khyber Pakhtookhwa [Peshawar and Mardan], and one seat from Quetta.
Punjab being the largest shareholder in the 272-seat National Assembly with 148 general seats would be the main battle ground for 2018 elections. Sindh has 61 seats, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 35 seats, Balochistan 14 seats, Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) 12 seats and two of federal capital together constitutes 124 general seats.
A comparison of the two previous general elections in 22 major cities in all four provinces, which constitute 137 seats in the National Assembly, shows that other parties like Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) need serious efforts to break the vote bank of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in its stronghold.
By 2013, after five years at the centre, the PPP implicated in mega scams, including Swiss case, rental power, Haj corruption, NICL and poor management during the 2010 floods, etc, won only 15 seats from 22 cities - three in Punjab from two cities (Rahimyar Khan and Muzzafargarh), and was wiped out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The party, however, kept its strength in four major cities of Sindh with 12 seats - a fact attributed to lack of viable options for the electorate in these cities.
PPP won one seat from Muzaffargarh in bye-elections after independent candidate Jamshed Dasti vacated one of his seats and left the field open for influential landlord, Ghulam Rabbani Khar. And the party's victory in Rahim Khan is the outcome of local politics with (i) Makhdoom Syed Mustafa Mehmood, son of the former Punjab Governor Makhdoom Ahmad Mehmood, who is cousin of Pir Pagara, considered a sure winner, and (ii) Khwaja Ghulam Rasool Koreja, also allied with former Punjab Governor Makhdoom Ahmad Mehmood.
In 2008, PML-N won a total of 48 seats, all from 15 major cities of Punjab. By 2013, PML-N - the party with experience in government - (Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf entered the 2013 elections without any experience in electioneering or government) - together with incumbency advantage claimed 85 seats in 15 cities of Punjab cities. These additional 37 seats were at the cost of the PPP and PML-Q. PML-N did not win any seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan or Sindh's major cities in 2013 like in 2008.
The PTI, which had boycotted the 2008 general elections, currently has 33 seats in National Assembly and has emerged as the third largest party having secured the second highest votes. PTI won seven seats from Punjab, including two from Rawalpindi, two from Multan, and one each from Lahore, Lodhran and Mianwali - all these seats were bagged by PPP in 2008.
PTI won five seats in two major cities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa- in 2008, three of them were with PPP and two ANP and one in Karachi (from MQM).
Rasul Bukhsh Rais, a political analyst, told BR that the today's voter is better educated now as compared to 2008 and 2013 elections. This can be judged from the PPP's defeat in the previous general elections, he added.
"Today's voter gets information from multiple sources, including private media and social media, about performance of the rulers; therefore, it is not easy to befool the electorate, especially in major cities through rhetoric," he said.
The PML-N's popularity among its electorates is going down with the issues like Panama Papers leaks, Model Town Lahore incident, favouritism and nepotism, he opined, saying "If Supreme Court gives a verdict against the Sharif family in Panama Papers case, then it will seriously impact the PML-N vote bank in 2018 general elections."
Currently, the ruling PML-N with a total of 189 seats in the 342-member National Assembly, won majority of 132 [general] seats from Punjab compared to 63 in 2008 elections, while it also secured six seats from KP, one from Sindh, five from Balochistan, one from Islamabad and three from Fata in 2013 general elections.
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Cities Seat Secured in 2013 Seat Secured in 2008
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Total PML-N PTI PPP PML-N PPP
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Peshawar 4 0 3 0 0 2
Mardan 3 0 2 0 0 1
Rawalpindi 7 4 2 0 6 1
Sargodha 5 5 0 0 1 2
Faisalabad 11 11 0 0 3 5
Jhang 6 6 0 0 0 1
Gujranwala 7 7 0 0 5 2
Gujrat 4 3 0 0 2 2
Sialkot 5 5 0 0 4 1
Lahore 13 12 1 0 11 2
Sheikhupura 7 7 0 0 7 0
Kasur 5 5 0 0 3 1
Okara 5 5 0 0 0 5
Multan 6 4 2 0 3 4
Muzaffargarh 5 3 0 1 0 5
Bahawalpur 5 4 0 0 2 2
Rahim Yar khan 6 4 0 2 1 4
Sukkur 2 0 0 2 0 2
Larkana 4 0 0 4 0 4
Hyderabad 6 0 0 4 0 4
Karachi 20 0 1 2 0 3
Quetta 1 0 0 0 0 1
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PML-N=85, PPP=15, PTI=11 PML-N=48, PPP=53, PTI=0
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