Russian grain exports are expected to fall in February from January due to stormy weather in ports and a stronger rouble making Russian grain less competitive in global dollar-denominated markets, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said. Russia, a major global wheat exporter, harvested a record grain crop of 119 million tonnes in 2016 but has failed to increase grain exports so far in the 2016/17 marketing year, which started on July 1, partially due to the stronger rouble.
The country is expected to export between 2.3 million and 2.4 million tonnes of grain in February, down from 2.6 million in January, SovEcon said in a note. February exports will include 1.7-1.8 million tonnes of wheat, 400,000 tonnes of maize (corn) and 80,000 tonnes of barley.
This will bring Russia's July-February grain exports to 25.6 million tonnes, compared with 26.2 million tonnes for the same period a year ago. "The government plans to export 37.5 million tonnes of grain in 2016/17 look increasingly unrealistic," SovEcon said. It sees Russia's 2016/17 grain exports at 35-36 million tonnes. Egypt has remained the largest buyer of Russian wheat, while Indonesia has become the second largest importer for the first time.
However, the rivalry for these markets will strengthen soon with Australia's record wheat crop hitting the market, SovEcon said. Russia's wheat supplies to Bangladesh have fallen for four months, with exports to Turkey significantly down in January. Vietnam supported Russian maize (corn) sales in January, when it imported 188,000 tonnes. It remains to be seen whether it remains a large market for Russian maize due to competition from Latin America, SovEcon said.