The International Grains Council on Thursday forecast a drawdown in global grains stocks in 2017/2018 for the first time in five seasons, amid falling production and rising consumption. In its first forecast for the 2017/2018 season, the IGC estimated global grains production at 2.05 billion tonnes, down from 2.106 billion tonnes in 2016/2017.
It also saw consumption rising, with most of the growth expected from food. Ample global stocks going into the start of the 2017/2018 season, however, are expected to ensure that total supplies are only slightly below the prior season. "The preliminary outlook for total grains in 2017/18 is for another well-supplied global market," the ICG said in its monthly report.
"While stocks could contract for the first time in five seasons, inventories will likely stay relatively heavy, with those in the major exporters still bigger than average." Ending stocks for the 2017/2018 season are seen at 484 million tonnes, down from 513 million tonnes in the 2016/2017 season. This is still the second-largest carryover figure on record, the IGC said.
The group forecast the global corn crop for the 2017/2018 season at 1.024 billion tonnes, down from 1.053 billion tonnes in 2016/2017, partly due to a production drop in the United States. Global wheat production for the 2017/2018 season was seen at 735 million tonnes, down from 754 million tonnes in 2016/2017. The IGC also revised its estimates for the 2016/2017 crop, boosting total grain production by 4 million to 2.106 billion tonnes, the largest crop on record. Global corn output in 2016/2017 was seen climbing to 1.053 billion tonnes, revised up from 1.049 billion tonnes. Global wheat production was forecast at 754 million tonnes, revised up 2 million from 752 million. The IGC also forecast world soybean production in 2017/2018 at all-time high of 345 million tonnes. This compared with expected 2016/2017 production of 341 million tonnes, revised up from a previous estimate of 336 million tonnes.