Contrary to statements by the Federal Minister for Water and Power Khawaja Asif on floor of the House on 19th April that the power crisis will see its end in the 'next eight to ten days' the power shortage, according to reports, has again soared at 7,000MW which is comparable to the shortage in the summer months during the tenure of the PPP-led coalition government. There was a brief period of reprieve for the hapless consumers end-April which, experts maintain, was due entirely to a drop in temperatures in Northern Areas of the country, reducing demand.
Khawaja Asif had, at the time, explained that the earlier than in previous years' onset of high temperatures led to a dramatic rise in unannounced load-shedding which could not be met due to the fact that a few power plants were undergoing routine maintenance while the snow, as always, would not melt at high altitudes till end-April which again routinely negatively impacts on hydel generation during this time of the year. By 1st May, the Minister assured Parliament that there would be no unannounced load-shedding. It is now the second week of May and the demand-supply gap has simply widened.
Few take statements by members of the cabinet in parliament seriously anymore, though prominent opposition leaders must bear their share of the blame by rarely attending parliament themselves, thereby prompting ministers to deliver unchallenged statements on floor of the House. But in this particular instance, invalidation of Khawaja Asif's latest commitment no doubt makes a mockery of the numerous inaugurations of mega power projects by the Prime Minister in recent months and persistent claims by the PML-N leadership that the energy crisis would be over by the next elections - a claim based on the several generation projects under construction. The claim that generation has increased by an amount larger than the known annual increase in managed demand is, however, not accompanied by a commensurate rise in transmission capacity which at last count by the relevant ministry was around 16,500MW - up by only 1500MW from 2012-13.
What is the assessment of the multilaterals with respect to our energy sector? The World Bank, the lead agency among multilaterals engaged in this sector, in an overview updated on 14th April 2017 states that: "There were early successes in taxation, the financial sector, the business environment (at both the national and provincial levels), and the electricity sector. However, significant reforms undertaken in the electricity sector have stalled since the Government stopped privatisation a year ago. Circular debt cleared earlier has piled up again nearly to its 2013 levels. There have been efforts to reduce the electricity regulator's independence." The International Monetary Fund after the completion of Article IV consultations uploaded the following on its website dated 5th April 2017: "bringing the power distribution sector to full cost recovery will be critical to ensure long-term success of new energy initiatives and minimise fiscal costs". Entwicklungsbank, in an internal document which was leaked to the media, was even more critical and referred to the claims by the Sharif administration with respect to the performance of the energy sector as politically influenced; but later apologised after Khawaja Asif took exception to this paper.
There is evidence of a growing tendency on the part of the federal cabinet to attack and compel those engaged in doing business with the government to back down rather than to make any serious attempt to take criticism constructively and take the appropriate mitigating measures. One can only hope that belligerence is replaced with a focus on improvement rather than on dismissing all criticism as either false or politically motivated.